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Forex Today: Japanese Yen Gains as Govt Loses Upper House

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked with...

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The Japanese government has lost control of the upper house of Parliament, putting its survival and monetary policy into question, leading to counter trend short-term gains for the Yen.

  1. Election results for the upper house of the Japanese Parliament are in and were damaging to the ruling coalition, which fell three seats short of retaining control. Every previous government that has lost control of the upper house has lost power within two months in Japanese postwar history. A more immediate impact is a strengthening of a Japanese Yen which has been trending weaker for some time now, triggering what might be major trend reversals. However, it needs to be remembered that it is not clear that a change of government or majority in the upper house is necessarily going to lead to a stronger Yen over the longer-term, for now we just know it is a likely short-term effect.
  2. New Zealand CPI (inflation) data released earlier came in a fraction higher than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.6% when an increase of only 0.5% was widely forecasted. This seems to have had little effect upon the Kiwi but might have sent it marginally lower.
  3. Major US stock market indices gave up some of their gains late last Friday, but in off-hours trading today are advancing close to new record highs. The NASDAQ 100 Index and the S&P 500 Index are both looking bullish right now and seem likely to make new records. If we get a strongly bullish close today, as it is a Monday, that will be a very bullish sign.
  4. Precious metals are looking bullish so far today, with Silver advancing especially firmly near to its 13-year high which it made recently. Copper is also advancing firmly towards its recent high price.
  5. In the Forex market, the Japanese Yen has been the strongest major currency this week, while the New Zealand Dollar is the weakest. The EUR/USD currency pair remains within a valid long-term bullish trend but is far from its near-term high price.
  6. The digital asset Bitcoin is rising firmly towards key resistance at $120,000. Trend traders will have been long for about two weeks and will probably still be seeing their trades in floating profit. For those finding it difficult to access Bitcoin, there are several affordable Bitcoin ETFs as well as Bitcoin micro futures (10% of a Bitcoin).
  7. It is a public holiday today in Japan.

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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