Today’s rate announcement was significant as it marks the first time that the central bank has failed to lower rates since it started the current easing cycle in August 2024. The RBNZ had lowered rates at six consecutive meetings, chopping 225 basis points during that period. The benchmark rate has remained at its lowest level since August 2022.
RBNZ statement: Uncertainty Requires Caution
Why the change in rate policy? The rate statement noted that the “economic outlook remains highly uncertain” and said that the rate path would depend on the following factors – the speed of the economic recovery, inflation and the impact of tariffs.
At the same time, the RBNZ signaled that it would continue to loosen monetary policy if inflation continued to ease as the Bank has projected. The Bank released an updated inflation forecast which projected inflation moving towards the top of the Bank’s 1-3% target band in mid-2025 and easing to around 2% by early 2026 due to lower underlying inflation and spare capacity in the economy.
The bottom line of the RBNZ rate decision? Today’s hold is likely a short breather rather than a change in monetary policy. The RBNZ signaled at the meeting that it plans to continue trimming rates in order to kick-start the struggling economy, assuming that the economy, and particularly inflation, evolves in line with the RBNZ’s forecasts.
The New Zealand economy tipped into a recession last year and lower global demand has hurt the export-dependent economy. The markets expect at least one more rate cut before the end of the year but the rate path will largely depend on inflation and growth data.
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New Zealand Dollar Steady, Stock Market Dips Sharply
The New Zealand dollar has shown a muted response to today’s rate decision. The NZD/USD currency pair is currently trading at 0.5993, down 0.07% on the day. The New Zealand dollar briefly pushed above the symbolic 0.6000 level earlier but was unable to maintain that gain.
The NZX 50, New Zealand’s main stock index, has posted losses today, erasing most of the gains it made on Tuesday. The index fell 90 points (0.70%), and closed at 12,768.