After a negative week which called the American bull market in stocks into question, stock markets have made a small rebound as the new week opens.
- Last week was defined by a reduction in risk appetite, a decline in stock markets, and a rapid evaporation of market capitalisation in the crypto sector. However, since today's open in Asia, we have seen a slight firming in risky assets, although it is nothing to get excited about, as it does not look strong enough to be any kind of meaningful reversal. It is a public holiday in Japan today, but the Chinese HSI is up by more than 2% while the Koream KOSPI is almost unchanged on the day. In the USA, both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 Indices are up by about 0.50% in off-hours trading on the day.
- In the Forex market, the USD/JPY currency pair seems to be following through on its recent bullish breakout, trading above ¥156.50, but still well below last week's high not far below ¥158.00. Trend traders will be long of this currency pair, although they will remain vulnerable over the short-term to potential intervention from the Bank of Japan or Japanese Government which does not want to see the Yen depreciate much further. Since today's Tokyo open, the best performing major currency has been the Australian Dollar, while the Japanese Yen has been the weakest, putting the AUD/JPY currency cross in focus.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows a major increase over the past week in the market's implied probability pricing that the Fed will cut rates at its next meeting in December, from 63% to a 69% probability, making it very likelyp. This can be expected to weaken the US Dollar although its new long-term bullish trend might still prevail.
- Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have lost a lot of value yesterday. I have been writing about Bitcoin's weakness as it looked heavy on $100,000, then broke below it, then broke below key support near $95,000 too. Bitcoin is down by almost one-third of its market capitalisation in just a few weeks, and other coins have also lost significant value. However, Bitcoin seems to have found support and potentially long-term buying at the support level of $81,203 and now looks weakly bullish above $85,369. If it can break above the resistance level at $88,487 that will be a more bullish sign.
- There are no high-impact economic data releases scheduled for today.
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