Optimism continues to blossom over the prospects for a peace deal between the USA and Iran, sending stocks firmly higher and energies notably lower.
- The big news today is the same as yesterday's - a more bullish and optimistic market, which is seeing major stock indices rising strongly (the S&P 500 Index is near 7,000 again for the first time in weeks), and Crude Oil prices trading lower, with spot WTI trading below $90 just a few hours ago. It seems clear that this is being driven by increasing optimism in the market about the prospect of a US/Iran deal to end the war, which I think is strange as I cannot imagine how the countries' red lines can be accommodated. However, there have been reports that Iran offered to suspend uranium enrichment for 10 years. Two days ago, President Trump began a naval blockade of all shipping to and from Iranian ports, and the US claims it turned back six ships trading with Iran. According to the prediction site Polymarket, a permanent deal to end the war is likely to happen in May which is even more optimistic than yesterday's expectation. The existing ceasefire expires next Tuesday.
- Positivity over a deal is getting an extra boost today, with VP Vance saying he's "happy with the place we are in" while President Trump said the war is "nearly over".
- Gold and Silver are retreating after making new short-term highs just a few hours ago.
- Bitcoin made a significant bullish breakout beyond the big round number area at $75,000, but the breakout seems to have decisively failed, which is a bearish sign for Bitcoin.
- In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar has been the strongest major currency since today's Tokyo open, while the Swiss Franc has been the weakest. The USD/JPY currency pair is taking another bearish turn as it again fails to make a significant new high. Trend traders will still be long of USD/JPY on the bullish breakout which seems to have found support at 158.63.
- Yesterday's release of US PPI data was notably lower than expected, but this does not seem to have affected the relative value of the US Dollar.
- There will be a release of Australian Unemployment Rate data later.