Top Regulated Brokers
The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates at 2.25% at today’s policy meeting, in a move that was widely expected. The ECB had kept rates at 2.0% since June 2025 before raising them by a quarter-point at its June meeting.
Markets Brace for September Rate Hike
Eurozone inflation is still running high for the Bank’s liking, as consumer price inflation (CPI) rose 2.8% and core CPI climbed 2.4% year-on year in June. The good news is that these figures were lower than in May and inflation expectations have been stable and aligned with the central bank’s 2% target.
The Iran war remains a key factor in the ECB’s rate policy path. The ceasefire in the Persian Gulf had sent oil prices lower, which provided the ECB with some breathing room and allowed it to maintain rates at today’s meeting. However, the new escalation in fighting has again disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices have spiked to their highest levels in a month. With a rise in oil prices comes higher inflation, which could force the ECB to raise rates as early as September.
The ECB rate statement, which discussed the risk of higher oil prices, was hawkish in tone. The Governing Council noted that the outlook for energy prices was “highly volatile”, but remained close to the Bank’s June projection. The statement also said that “uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out."
The markets, which have priced in two more rate hikes before the end of the year, are viewing today’s decision as a “hawkish hold”. Market expectations for a quarter-point hike in September have risen to 92%, up from 85% prior to the rate decision. If the fighting in the Persian Gulf intensifies and oil prices continue to head higher, the ECB may have to respond with a series of rate hikes to keep inflation in check.
Euro Edges Lower, European Stock Markets Slide after ECB Decision
In the aftermath of the ECB rate decision, the EUR/USD currency pair has responded with modest losses and is trading at 1.1375, down 0.3% on the day.
Key European stock indices are down sharply on Thursday. The German DAX 40 Index is down 321.56 points (1.28%) and is trading at 24,852.49. The French CAC 40 Index has declined by 117.33 points (1.39%) and is trading at 8320.56 points.
We hope you enjoyed reading this analysis of the latest European Central Bank policy meeting. If you want to trade it, check out our list of the best Forex brokers.