The price of crude oil has continued to rise for yet another day, as the fighting between the USA and Iran keeps escalating.
- Crude Oil keeps rising and has now reached its highest price in six weeks. This is due to the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, strangling global crude oil exports. The ceasefire between the USA and Iran, always an essentially ridiculous and flawed concept, is dead at least for now, and there are increasing signals that the USA and possibly its allies will launch a major attack on Iran. It is also possible that Iran could launch a larger strike on the Gulf States and Jordan, which have already been taking fire, and maybe Israel as well. If this happens, it will likely drive the price of crude oil even higher. This could be an interesting asset for day traders on the long side.
- The European Central Bank will be holding a policy meeting today, and is expected to maintain its interest rate at 2.40%.
- The US Dollar remains relatively firm but is continuing to make what looks to be a bearish top, or at least potentially so, underneath the key resistance level at 101.39 which protects the 1-year high price.
- A poll at the Bank of Japan suggests that the Bank will still hike rates before the end of 2026. This may put the brakes on the USD/JPY currency pair breaking out to any new 39-year highs, at least within the next day or so.
- Tech companies, especially AI-oriented companies, are under the microscope again as earnings season approaches. There are increasing concerns that big AI companies have over-extended themselves with debt as they tried to invest in their futures. This sector seems potentially primed for a sharp fall.
- In the Forex market, the Australian Dollar has been the strongest major currency since today's Tokyo open, while the Swiss Franc has been the weakest. The USD/JPY currency pair and the GBP/USD will probably continue to attract the most interest, as the former just reached a new 39-year high, while the UK saw a new Prime Minister appointed yesterday, who is in the process of forming his government.
- Bitcoin is showing early signs of a technical bearish double top.
- Wheat futures have broken out to reach a 2-month high.
- Australian Unemployment Rate data remained unchanged as expected at 4.4%, but far more jobs were created last month than expected.