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The Nasdaq 100 Index and Nasdaq Composite have both closed at new all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 Index rose yesterday by 0.8% to its first record close since June, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.45% to close at a second consecutive daily record high of 27,244.28. The rally continues to be driven by technology, semiconductor, and AI shares. Trend traders will mostly be long of tech stocks like the NASDAQ 100, although the strong bullish move might be over-extended at the high - it has barely broken June's high.
The wider US stock market was quieter yesterday. The S&P 500 Index closed essentially unchanged and remains roughly 0.4% below its record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by approximately 0.4% to 51,863.69. This suggests that the bullish move is concentrated in large technology shares rather than being a broad-based stock rally.
Asian stock markets are mixed today. Korean equities (with heavy tech representation) are firmer, but Chinese and Hong Kong markets are weaker. The mixed performance comes despite lower oil prices and growing hopes that diplomacy could reduce Middle East risk, as traders await the Trump-Xi meeting and remain cautious about expectations for a major US-China agreement.
Bitcoin remains near its eight-month high. Bitcoin is trading close to $86,500 after reaching $87,381 earlier this week, its highest price since late January. The breakout above $82,000 remains technically bullish, and Bitcoin’s ability to remain established above that former resistance area is an encouraging sign.
Other major cryptocurrencies remain broadly bullish. Ethereum is trading near $2,775, Solana near $119, and BNB near $795, with all three holding up near their recent multi-month highs. Ethereum has gained more than 15% over the past week, while Solana is up about 21%, showing that the crypto rally remains broad rather than confined to Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrency trend traders will likely remain long, but the trend is mature. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB have each made strong multi-month breakouts. However, these assets have advanced sharply over only a few trading days, so a corrective pullback would not be a surprise if it happens. The most important bullish technical level in Bitcoin remains the area around $82,000; a sustained fall below that area would weaken the breakout case substantially.
The recent decline in the price of Crude Oil is supporting equities and crypto. Brent Crude settled near $99.25 yesterday after President Trump said US officials had held a “very good” meeting with Iranian envoys in New York. WTI fell 1.2% to $94.59, while Saudi pipeline activity also helped reduce the immediate supply-risk premium. I am convinced that the Iranian regime will ever agree to a true deal that is not simply a tactical retreat within its eternal war against the USA.
In the Forex market, the US Dollar remains firm, while the Yen is weak. The US Dollar is rising firmly above its former resistance at about 100 (DXY). USD/JPY is trading near 157.40, close to the 158.00 area which remains an important resistance level and a potential zone for verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. The Dollar is being supported by continuing expectations of another Fed hike, despite the recent fall in oil prices. Since today's Tokyo open, the Australian Dollar has been the strongest major currency, while the New Zealand Dollar has been the weakest.
The Trump-Xi summit could influence risk sentiment. Xi Jinping is due to arrive in Washington today for a state visit running through Friday, with the leaders expected to meet tomorrow. Trade, AI, critical minerals, Taiwan, and the Iran war are all expected to be on the agenda. Markets will look especially for progress on extending the tariff truce before it expires on 10 November.
Today’s US PMI data may move the US Dollar and equity indices. The preliminary US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI releases will be watched for evidence of whether the US economy can sustain the current policy-tightening outlook. Strong data would likely support the Dollar and US yields, while weaker figures could deepen the current risk-on move if they reduce Fed-hike expectations.