- The US Dollar remains strong, dominating action in the Forex market. The Dollar Index is rising again after trading above 101.00 late last week. EUR/USD is near 1.1380, while GBP/USD is around 1.3230. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price an approximate 70% probability of another Fed rate hike at its late October meeting, up from about 56% early last week.
- US Treasury yields reached fresh long-term highs. The 10-year yield touched 5.2297% on Friday, its highest since 2007, before easing slightly as the price of Crude Oil fell. It is rising again very near this high as the new week begins.
- The Japanese Yen has given back some of Friday’s gain. USD/JPY is near 157.70 after falling towards 157.20 on Friday. Japanese and US officials have expressed concern about Yen weakness and reaffirmed their intention to cooperate, which makes a renewed push towards the round number at 158.00 an important area to watch.
- Crude Oil has rebounded moderately after Friday’s fall. Brent dropped by about 3% on Friday amid hopes of a US-Iran truce but is back above $98 today after President Trump rejected a proposed peace deal. WTI is trading close to $94. The reversal shows why crude remains difficult to trade: the outlook can change sharply with each development concerning Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Major US stock market indices are trading a bit lower after Friday's recovery. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.93%, the S&P 500 rose 0.51% to 7,743.41, and the Nasdaq 100 Index advanced 0.42% to 30,608.13. The Nasdaq 100 Index remains below the record close it made last Tuesday, so it would be premature to describe this as a fresh breakout.
- The Trump-Xi summit is over, with no major trade breakthrough. The US and China extended their trade truce by two months, to 10 January 2027, reducing the immediate risk of renewed tariff escalation. However, the leaders announced no comprehensive agreement on the larger trade, technology, and geopolitical disputes. Details of narrower arrangements covering some goods may be released today.
- Soybeans received no clear new purchase commitment. US officials say China is meeting its existing commitment to buy 25 million tonnes of US soybeans, but the summit did not produce a firm additional pledge. Soybean futures are near 1,319 cents per bushel, below their recent multi-year high of about 1,332 cents. Trend traders will still be involved on the long side.
- Major cryptocurrencies remain above their earlier breakout levels, but momentum has cooled. Bitcoin is around $84,500, well below last week’s high above $87,000; Ethereum is near $2,680. These are no longer fresh highs, so the question for trend traders becomes more whether Bitcoin can continue to hold above its former resistance around $82,000. However, trend traders will still mostly be long of these and certain other cryptocurrencies.
- It may be a relatively quiet day in the market today as it is a Monday with no scheduled high-impact economic data releases.
Forex Today: US Dollar, Crude Oil Moderately Higher
Chief Analyst and Director of ContentAdam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked with...
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Chief Analyst and Director of ContentAdam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.
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