On Monday, the US dollar initially pulled back a bit against the Indian rupee, but as we have seen time and time again, the US dollar recovered to show signs of life. The US dollar will continue to attract attention as long as we are concerned about global growth and risk appetite. After all, the Indian rupee is pretty far out there on the risk appetite spectrum, while the US dollar is considered to be as close to being risk-free as possible.
Further driving money into the US dollar is the fact that the interest rates in America continue to rise as the bond market selloff. This suggests that we are going to continue to see a lot of money flow into the United States as yields are much more attractive. That being said, we should also pay close attention to the fact that as risk appetite drops, it is a bit of a feedback loop going forward.
Looking at the technical analysis, you can see that the ₹70 level underneath has been interesting for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, the 50-day EMA is sitting right there as well, so it does suggest that the ₹70 level might end up being a bit of a “floor the market” currently. The short-term pullback should continue to offer buying opportunities, especially as value hunters entered the fray. Ultimately, I think that the market is going to try to go to the ₹77 level, which is where we had seen a significant pullback previously. As you can see on the chart, I have a large figure market, and as you look at the chart you can see just how technical this pair tends to be. What this suggests to me is that if we were to get a daily close above the ₹77 level, we could go looking to reach the ₹78 level. I do not believe that the Bank of India is concerned about a depreciating rupee at the moment, as inflation is a big problem worldwide. Furthermore, the move has been relatively orderly, and that is important to central banks as well. It is the rate of change that gets people concerned and right now the rate of change is not out of control. As long as this is the case, I think you jump in and buy these dips as they occur.
