The ETH/USD market has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, getting over 4% by midday. Ultimately, this is a market that is still consolidating, but what’s interesting is that the previous consolidation area, which extended to the $1200 level, has offered quite a bit of support, so the question now is whether the market will hang on to this area.
I think crypto is in a state of flux now, and they certainly would not bet against Ethereum over the longer term. However, in the short term we continue to see a lot of “risk off behavior” around the world, and that is part of what is weighing on Ethereum. The market has done almost nothing but go lower since the upgrade came through, but I do believe at this point we need to continue to look at this through the prism of monetary policy coming out of the United States. If the Federal Reserve is going to be tightening monetary policy, it’s going to be difficult for risk assets such as Ethereum to do well.
Market Likely to go Back to All Time Highs
- Over the longer term, I certainly believe that Ethereum has a long life ahead of it. I do believe that it goes higher over the longer-term, but I also recognize that we are in a situation where there are a lot of pessimists out there, and I think that will continue to be a major issue.
- I believe that the 50-Day EMA at the $1500 level will probably offer a significant amount of resistance, if for no other reason than the psychology.
- I think that it’s probably only a matter of time before we see sellers come in and squash any type of bigger rallies. However, given enough time I do anticipate that this market goes back to the all-time highs.
If we were to break down below the $1200 level, then it’s possible that we could see a move back down to the $900 level, which was the bottom recently. If we break down below that area, then we could see the Ethereum market drop all the way back down to $400. At this point, I’m not necessarily looking to short Ethereum, but I would like to buy dips in small bits and pieces. It I have no interest in trying to jump “all in” anytime soon.
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