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AUD/USD Forecast: Sees Noise

By Christopher Lewis

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex...

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At the end of the day, the Australian dollar's recent trading activity has been marked by hesitation and uncertainty.

  • The AUD/USD faced a bout of uncertainty during Monday's trading session.
  • It initially attempted to rally, but soon relinquished its gains, reflecting a degree of hesitation among market participants.
  • The key focal point at this juncture rests at the 0.67 level, which acts like a magnet for price movements and could persist in playing this role.

In all honesty, the prevailing circumstances lack the clarity needed for decisive action. Nevertheless, a couple of crucial levels warrant attention, potentially influencing the decision to buy or sell. Consequently, exercising caution in determining your position size is paramount, and rushing headlong into the market is ill-advised. Prudence dictates scaling your position incrementally as conditions favor your stance.

The immediate obstacle looms at 0.6765, serving as a short-term resistance barrier. Surpassing this hurdle could pave the way towards the 0.69 mark. Conversely, a breach below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average might steer the Australian dollar towards the 0.65 level. It's essential to acknowledge that this market's behavior is highly sensitive to risk appetite, with interest rate fluctuations in the United States also influencing its dynamics. This will continue to be the main factor in the foreseeable future in this pair, and many other markets.

10 Year Yields

To navigate this terrain effectively, keep a watchful eye on the 10-year yield and monitor developments in Asia and global economic growth. Geopolitical considerations remain a prominent factor that can sway the attractiveness of the US dollar. Currently, the market is positioned around fair value, straddling between two pivotal points on the chart, fostering a somewhat neutral outlook. Nonetheless, vigilance is essential, and closely monitoring these key levels will be crucial in shaping future trading decisions.

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AUD/USD Initially Attempted to Rally.

At the end of the day, the Australian dollar's recent trading activity has been marked by hesitation and uncertainty. While the 0.67 level continues to exert its magnetic pull on prices, the lack of clarity in the market suggests caution is warranted. Key resistance at 0.6765 and support at the 50-day EMA will likely determine future price movements. Factors such as risk appetite, US interest rates, and geopolitical developments should also be closely monitored to make informed trading decisions. As the market hovers around fair value, traders must remain patient and attentive to emerging trends before committing to significant positions.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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