Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6410.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6250.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6250.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6410.
The AUD/USD exchange rate rose slightly as the market watched the ongoin tariff issues in the US and the Australian GDP numbers. It also rose after Beijing maintained its optimistic view of the Chinese economy. It was trading at 0.6320, up from last week’s low of 0.6187.
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China and Australian macro data
The AUD/USD pair rose after the latest Australian GDP data. According to the statistics agency, Australia’s economy expanded by 1.3% in the fourth quarter, higher than the median estimate of 1.2%. It grew by 0.6% on a month-on-month basis.
This growth was driven by consumer spending, which rose by 0.50% in Q4 from the previous retreat of 0.1%. Capital expenditure rose by 0.7% during the quarter. The report means that the country is doing better than expected.
Further, China maintained its bullish outlook on its economy even after Donald Trump unveiled more tariffs on the country. Beijing expects that the Chinese economy will grow by 5% this year, matching its performance in 2024, when it surged in the fourth quarter because of tariffs.
The AUD/USD pair rose after ADP published a weak private payrolls report on Wednesday. The company said that the economy added just 77k private payrolls numbers in February, much lower than the expected 141k.
American employers have embraced a wait-and-see approach as they wait for the next action by Donald Trump on tariffs. He unveiled another 10% tariff on Chinese imports on top of the 10% it launched in January.
These tariffs will likely affect demand in the US and lead to higher cost of doing business in the country. Therefore, there are chances that the Friday’s nonfarm payroll (NFP) report will be weaker than expected since it will include government payrolls that have been decimated by Elon Musk.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate bounced back this week, moving from this month’s low of 0.6187 to a high of 0.6320. It has moved slightly above the 50-day moving average and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement point at 0.6285.
The pair is nearing the the crucial resistance level at 0.6347, the lowest swing in August last year. Also, the pair is approaching the major support and resistance level of the Murrey Math Lines at 0.6347.
Therefore, the AUD/USD pair will likely keep rising in the next few days as bulls target the key resistance level at 0.6400, the top of the trading range and the 38.20% retracement level.
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