Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 80,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 90,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 90,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 80,000.
Bitcoin price held steady above $84,000 as the financial market regained momentum ahead of Donald Trump’s tariffs. The BTC/USD pair soared to 84,455 on Tuesday, up from this month’s low of 76,400.
Bitcoin’s rise happened as the market bought risky assets. The Dow Jones index rose by 500 points, while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices rose by 138 and 60 points, respectively.
A series of weak economic numbers from the United States sparked the rally. Data showed that the US retail sales softened in February as consumer confidence continued falling.
US retail sales rose from minus 1.2% in January to 0.2% in February, missing the analysts estimate of 0.6%. Core sales rose by 0.3% on a MoM basis, lower than the expected 0.4%.
Another report showed that the Empire State manufacturing index dropped to minus 20 in March, much lower than the median estimate of minus 1.9.
These numbers mean that the US economy is softening, a trend that may continue after Donald Trump’s tariffs. Trump has implemented large tariffs on goods from some of the biggest American trading partners like China and Mexico.
A slowing economy is bullish for risky assets like Bitcoin and stocks because of the rising odds that the Federal Reserve will intervene by slashing interest rates as it has done in the past. The challenge this time is that the US is facing a stagflation, which is characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth.
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BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD has tilted upwards in the past few days as it rose from a low of 76,402 to over 84,500. The challenge, however, is that the pair has struggled to move above the important resistance level at 85,000.
The other challenge is that Bitcoin has formed a rounded top pattern, a popular continuation sign. Also, it has formed a death cross as the 200-day and 50-day moving averages crossed each other. A death cross is one of the most bearish patterns in the market.
The pair has also formed a small rising wedge pattern, another popular reversal signs in the market. Therefore, the pair may have a bearish breakout in the coming days. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at 76,400. A move above the resistance at 86,000 will point to more gains, potentially to 90,000.
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