- The Euro spiked in the early hours on Thursday, but it looks like we're rolling right back over.
- Now, this makes sense on a multitude of levels, not the least of which would be the fact that we have got way ahead of ourselves.
- And in fact, I would take a look at this through the prism of the Bollinger Bands, and you can see we are way outside of normalcy.
- So, a reversion to the mean does make a certain amount of sense, and I think that might be what we are getting ready to see.
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Nonetheless, we also have the non-farm payroll announcement on Friday and what happens if that's a shocker that could send the euro plunging from here? One of the things that's been driving the euro higher has been the fact that bonds in Germany have spiked drastically as far as yield is concerned as the Germans are going to flood the world with euros and spending.
So, with that much more in the pipeline, then it drove down yield or drove down demand for German boons and then drove yields higher. That made the euro more attractive, but now people are starting to look at this and go, maybe not a good thing. So, we'll have to wait and see. This could be an interesting setup. And if it weren't for non-farm payroll on Friday, I think a lot of traders would look at this and start shorting aggressively. Now the question is, do we continue to fall from here? You could make an argument that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level being right around the 1.08 level is something worth watching.
And the fact that we formed a shooting star most certainly adds to that intrigue. That being said, be cautious though. We've got non-farm payroll. The interest rate differential is rapidly flipping. So as long as that ends up being the case, it's very likely that there will still be upward pressure in this EUR/USD pair. A pullback to the 200 day EMA is very possible. And that could send us down to the 1.0640 level. And really, it wouldn't necessarily change anything. Either way, I'm not chasing this trade all the way up here just to buy the euro.
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