- The British pound has rallied just a little bit during the early hours on Monday against the Swiss franc as we continue to try to determine whether or not we can actually break out and do anything.
- Ultimately, this is a market that continues to be thrown around by risk appetite and despite the fact that we have cleared a very obvious consolidation area since August of last year, the market just didn’t have any momentum.
- That does make a certain amount of sense because most people were freaked out about these tariffs and everything else.
So, they're too afraid to do anything. With that being said, the interest rate differential does favor the British pound. And of course, the Swiss have a big interest rate decision this week with the likelihood of another 25 basis point cut. So, the market already knows this. I don't know if it will react on it or not.
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The interest rate differential comes into play and you do get paid at the end of every day to own this pair. But it's also worth noting that perhaps we have a situation where we need to clear the 1.15 level to get more FOMO trading. If we do pull back from here, I think there's plenty of support at the 1.14 level as well as the 50 day EMA, which is near the 1.1350 level. Choppy conditions persist in this market, but I still favor the upside.
I don't like paying for the swap at the end of every day anyways. I've never understood why somebody would want to do that. But at this juncture, we are trying to escape what has basically been fair value for multiple years now. And it does look like there's more pressure to the upside than down. So, I still favor buying.
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