- You can see the dollar has fallen a bit during the trading session here on Thursday as we now start to think about non-farm payroll announcements on Friday.
- With this, the U.S. dollar has broken through pretty significant support.
- So, we'll have to wait and see if this is just a throw over or if it's something that leads to much deeper and dropping.
I suspect that we will continue to see the Japanese yen rally a bit, but I think longer term eventually we turn around. In the short term, we could very well end up dropping down to the 145 yen level, which is an area that's been important more than once and will attract a certain amount of attention. However, if we were to turn around and recapture the 150 yen level on a daily close,
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Could We Recover?
You may be able to convince me that we are going to recover quite a bit. I do think that this is simply going to be about the bond markets, and of course, the yields in America have fallen while the yields in Japan have risen, so we're repricing the differential. At the end of the day, though, you still pay to be short of this market, something I'm not a fan of. So as long as the interest rates are still pretty far wide apart. I don't really like the idea of shorting for anything more than a short term move.
From a longer term standpoint, I still believe that eventually we will see this thing turn around. But there are hints of recession in the United States, which could set up an interesting situation where maybe the yen strengthens against the dollar, but not against other currencies. We'll just have to wait and see. But right now, I would say that more likely than not, the 150 yen level will be a very difficult resistance barrier to get above.
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