- If you wanted to be put to sleep, this pair is your answer.
- We are simply walking back and forth in a circle against the 50-day EMA as traders are trying to sort out whether or not the tariffs are going to be implemented.
- Trump keeps waffling on this, so if he continues to do that, eventually the markets won't care.
- Right now, it looks like we are going to continue to see the US dollar bounce around between the 20th, the 20 level and the 21 level against the Mexican peso.
The 50 day EMA is sitting right here as well. And now it looks like the US dollar is settling into a 20.50 level overall. If we were to break out of this range that seems to be so well developed, then obviously we could have a pretty significant move. If we break above the 21 level, then it's possible that the US dollar goes looking to the 21.50 Mexican peso level followed by the 22 level based on a measured move.
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If the Greenback Falls Overall
On the other hand, if the US dollar gets walloped here, we could see a breakdown below the 20 Mexican peso level, and then we would almost certainly struggle with the 200-day EMA underneath, which is rising and will more likely than not offer a bit of support. I do expect a lot of choppy volatility, but overall, this is a pair that I think will remain sideways, at least in the short term, as we are starting to see the economy change a bit.
For example, Honda just announced that they will be producing the new Civic in Indiana instead of Mexico. So, there's 300,000 cars being produced in the United States instead, mainly because of tariffs. So, it looks like the idea of the tariff is starting to work a little bit. There's been some other companies as well that have announced similar things. So, we'll have to wait and see. If the Mexican economy decouples from the US economy drastically, that'll be disastrous for Mexico. So, I am watching this story, but right now things just look like they're ready to go sideways and not much else.
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