Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6525.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6350.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6350.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6525.
The AUD/USD pair jumped to a crucial resistance level ahead of the crucial economic data from the US and Australia. It rose to 0.6433, a level it has failed to break above several times this year. This price is about 9% above its lowest level this year.
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Australia and US inflation data ahead
The AUD/USD pair has jumped in the past few days ahead of crucial macro data from the US and Australia.
The initial data to watch today will be the US consumer confidence data, a closely-watched leading indicator. Economists expect the data to show that consumer confidence fell sharply in April because of Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs.
These tariffs have already started leading to higher inflation in the country. For example, popular Chinese companies like Temu and Shein have started boosting prices of all products sold in the United States.
A sharp decline in consumer confidence signals that the economy may be heading towards a recession. Odds of a recession have dropped recently now that Trump has hinted that he is open to a deal with China.
The other key data to watch will be the upcoming US personal consumer expenditure (PCE) data. Economists expect the data to show that the PCE dropped slightly in March before most of Trump’s tariffs started.
The next key AUD/USD news will come out on Wednesday when Australia will publish the latest consumer inflation data for the first quarter.
Economists expect the data to show that the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose from 0.2% in Q4 to 0.8% in Q1. They see it falling from 2.4% to 2.3% on an annual basis. Traders will pay a closer attention to the trimmed and weighted mean moving averages.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has been in a strong uptrend in the past few weeks as the US dollar index fell. It moved to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level, and slightly above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD have all pointed upwards. Therefore, a break above the key resistance at 0.6433 will point to more gains, potentially to the next key resistance point at 0.6525.
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