Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6275.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6275.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
The AUD/USD exchange rate rose to a crucial resistance after the strong Chinese, Australian, and United States economic numbers. The pair rose to 0.6370 on Thursday, its highest swing since February 21. It has jumped by 7.65% from the lowest point this month.
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China and US talks hope rise
The AUD/USD exchange rate continued rising after Chinese economic numbers showed that the economy was doing well. It expanded by 5.4% in the first quarter, higher than the median estimate of 5.2%.
More data showed that retail sales rose by 5.9% in March, while industrial production and fixed asset investment rose by 7.7% and 4.2%, respectively. Chinese economic numbers are important for Australia because of the goods it bought each year. China bought products worth $102.6 billion from the country in 2024.
Meanwhile, a report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. The economy also added over 20k jobs, a big improvement from the 52.8k loss a month earlier.
The AUD/USD pair also rose after data revealed that the US retail sales rose by 4.6% YoY in March. This increase likely happened as consumers prepared for Donald Trump’s retaliatory tariffs against most countries.
Meanwhile, the greenback continued falling after Jerome Powell delivered a closely-watched statement. In it, he stressed that the Fed was still focused on ensuring that Trump’s tariffs won’t trigger inflation.
His statement led to sharp decline in the stock market as he resisted the pressure to cut interest rates. The Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 indices retreated by over 2, while government bonds continued selling off.
The top data to watch on Thursday will be the housing starts, building permits, and the initial and continuing jobless claims data.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few days. It has jumped from a low of 0.5700 earlier this month to a high of 0.6367.
The pair moved above the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level and the 50-day moving average. Also, oscillators like the Money Flow Index (MFI) has continued rising.
Therefore, more gains will be confirmed if it moves above the key resistance at 0.6390. A move above that level will point will point to more gains, potentialy to the psychological point at 0.6500.
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