My previous BTC/USD signal on 7th April produced a losing short trade from the bearish reversal at the resistance level of $79,599.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
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Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $81,203, $78,079, or $74,725.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $84,807, $86,215, or $88,958.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast last Monday that I would only look for short trades in Bitcoin today. This wasn’t a great call and did not work out well, with the short trade opportunity that set up producing a loss.
Bitcoin has been something of a sideshow lately, with markets dominated by dramatic developments concerning the US imposing big tariffs on imports of foreign goods. This produced a bit risk-off move in the market. Then, yesterday, the Trump administration announced that tariffs on all countries would be set at a flat and relatively low rate of 10% for 90 days while talks were conducted with many trading partners. This news sent risk assets strongly higher, although prices are still considerably lower than when all this tariff talk really came into focus about two weeks ago.
Bitcoin has been no exception and fell then rose just like stocks and all other risk assets did.’
However, what is technically significant, is that a longer-term price chart shows that even the recent price increases were technically maintained within the multi-month downwards trend. This is a bearish sign for Bitcoin.
On shorter-term time frames, there was a bullish sign: the double bottom at the support level of $74,725 which is very confluent with the major round number at $75,000. So, you can see this as strong support and an area where you might feel confident about buying if you are prepared to hold for a while. This was also a breakout area when Trump was elected President, so it looks very likely to be pivotal, key support.
A short trade from $84,612 following a bearish reversal there could also be a good trade.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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