Potential signal:
- The EUR/CHF pair breaking above the 0.9350 level is a buy signal for me.
- I would have a stop loss at the 0.9250 level and be aiming for a move to the 0.95 level.
- This will be a slow move, but it does have a positive swap as well, so you do get paid to wait.
Typically speaking, the EUR/CHF pair is one that isn’t that interesting. However, when I look at this currency pair, it’s obvious to me that the area around the 0.9250 level is massive support, as we have seen it tested 3 different times. With that being said, this has captured my attention, especially considering that the Swiss franc is overbought against most currencies, not just the euro.
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Furthermore, worth noting that the euro is strong against most currencies, so the fact that it is struggling against the Swiss franc does of course capture my attention. Because of this, one has to wonder what makes this different? The obvious answer of course is that the Swiss franc is considered to be a “safety currency”, but it’s ultimately a currency that is overdone, and unless there is some type of massive Armageddon type of event, it’s very likely that the Swiss franc will be sold off given enough time.
Swiss National Bank
The Swiss National Bank cannot be forgotten in this situation, due to the fact that the Swiss National Bank has a history of intervening in the currency markets, especially in the EUR/CHF pair. Keep in mind that Switzerland devotes over 80% of its exports into the European Union, so it does make sense that they will watch this pair quite drastically. After all, if the Swiss franc becomes too strong, it can have a major detrimental effect on the Swiss economy as they will not be able to sell to places like Austria, Germany, France, etc.
At this point in time, the pair looks as if it is watching the 0.9350 level closely, because it could help determine a potential breakout from this massive previous bottom. Ultimately, this is a market that I think you need to be paying close attention to, because it could give you a bit of a “heads up” as to how to trade the CHF-denominated currency pairs around the world.
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