EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Still bullish.
- Today's EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1470 – 1.1400 – 1.1330 respectively.
- Today's EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1600 – 1.1660 – 1.1800 respectively.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1620 with a target of 1.1300 and a stop-loss at 1.1710.
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1430 with a target of 1.1660 and a stop-loss at 1.1360.
The persistent weakness of the US Dollar is allowing the EUR/USD bulls to push the pair to its highest level in over three years, with gains extending to the 1.1572 resistance level before settling around 1.1526 at the time of writing this analysis. This comes ahead of new statements from European Central Bank (ECB) Governor Lagarde and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index reading, both due at 15:00 Saudi time. Additionally, throughout the day, there will be statements from a number of US Federal Reserve policymakers at a time when markets are volatile due to Trump's threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. This has further exacerbated the US Dollar's struggles in the foreign exchange markets.
Will EUR/USD Rise Further in the Coming Days, and What Are the Expected Prices?
In this regard, Forex currency experts at Deutsche Bank expect the EUR/USD exchange rate to rise in the long term to the 1.25 resistance level by the end of 2027, taking into account the risk of an acceleration in the pace of these gains. According to currency market trading, the EUR/USD pair remains significantly above levels that can be justified by interest rate differentials alone, amid declining dollar confidence.
For its part, MUFG commented, "If these interest rate differentials return to influencing the Forex market, the dollar is likely to recover. This means that EUR/USD will fall below the 1.1000 level." They added, "However, we doubt this will happen at this stage, and it requires US President Trump to take more serious action in terms of reversing trade policy for the dollar to recover more sustainably."
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However, Standard Chartered sees the possibility of the dollar falling to 1.08 this quarter; "We see the US Dollar Index (DXY) as likely to rebound slightly from its current levels." According to Standard Chartered, "We believe the recent US dollar weakness is a reaction to concerns that US policy is likely to lead to lower demand for US assets. However, a renewed focus on positive growth factors, such as tax cuts and deregulation, is likely to alleviate these concerns."
Furthermore, Citi expects the Euro to reach high levels around $1.20 within the next six to twelve months before the US Dollar starts to appreciate again.
Trading Tips:
The EUR/USD trend will remain bullish, but be cautious about initiating profit-taking selling operations at any time.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The overall trend for the EUR/USD pair remains bullish, and breaking the 1.1550 resistance, as has already occurred, confirms the strength of the bulls' control. Amid this performance, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stable above the 70 reading, confirming a break above the overbought barrier, and the MACD (12 and 26) is in an actual overbought zone, as is the Stochastic. Unless the Euro finds more positive momentum, we may see the start of profit-taking selling operations, but this will not lead to a reversal of the overall bullish trend without a recovery of the US Dollar.
EUR/USD Bullish Scenario:
If the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings for the manufacturing and services sectors of the Eurozone's largest economies come in better than expected, EUR/USD may find positive momentum, thus preparing for a move above the 1.1600 resistance. Further gains beyond that will be fuelled by the increasing dispute between Trump and Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell and the continuation of trade tensions.
EUR/USD Bearish Scenario:
A breakthrough in US trade tensions with other global economies, especially the Eurozone and China, may give currency traders the opportunity to move the EUR/USD pair downwards amid renewed profit-taking selling after its recent pace of gains. I still prefer selling the Euro against the US Dollar from every upward level, but without risk and while monitoring the influencing factors on the currency pair, which have been listed in the analysis.
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