EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bullish with a slight downward bias.
- Today's EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1300 – 1.1255 – 1.1180 respectively.
- Today's EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1370 – 1.1460 – 1.1680 respectively.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1420 with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1210 with a target of 1.1420 and a stop-loss at 1.1100.
The EUR/USD pair tumbled to the doorstep of the 1.1300 support level during yesterday's trading session, declining from the 1.1572 resistance level at the beginning of this week's trading, which was the highest for the currency pair since February 2022. The EUR/USD pair is stabilizing around the 1.1313 level at the beginning of today's Thursday trading session, ahead of the release of the US jobless claims and durable goods orders figures, which will be announced at 13:30 Saudi Arabia time.
According to recent Forex market trading, the weaker US dollar has boosted the euro exchange rates, thanks to the inverse relationship between the two currencies. During today's Thursday trading session, the main factor likely to influence the euro exchange rate will be the release of the latest Ifo German Business Climate Index, which will be announced at 9:00 AM Saudi Arabia time. The April index is expected to show a slight decline, which could put downward pressure on the euro if the data aligns with expectations.
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Trading Tips:
The EUR/USD trend will remain strongly bullish if its prices stabilize above the 1.1400 resistance. Consequently, the trajectory of the US trade wars should be monitored to predict the euro's next direction.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
According to recent trading on the daily chart, the trend for the EUR/USD pair remains bullish, and the recent sell-offs have not pushed the pair out of the trend. An initial break of the bullish trend will not occur without the bears successfully moving the EUR/USD pair towards the support levels of 1.1245, 1.1180, and 1.1090 first. Currently, the 14-day RSI indicator is below the 70 level, which indicates overbought conditions, and has more time before moving towards neutrality at least.
At the same time, the MACD (12, 26 close) indicator is still moving upwards and has more room before turning downwards. According to the performance on the daily timeframe, the 1.1400 resistance will remain important for the bulls to control the trend. This peak is crucial for a renewed bullish scenario for EUR/USD. Conversely, the bearish scenario on the daily chart's performance will remain awaiting catalysts to push towards the psychological level of 1.1000 to confirm a bearish reversal.
Why Has the EUR/USD Price Retreated Again?
According to recent trading, we witnessed profit-taking selloffs for the EUR/USD pair, something we often mentioned as a possibility after the recent pace of gains. Adding to the selling opportunities was the easing of concerns about the independence of the US central bank. The US Dollar Index (DXY) regained some of its strength after US President Trump stated that he does not intend to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
However, the euro has risen more than 5% against the US dollar during trading this month, as investors increasingly question the US dollar's dominance in the global financial system and are turning to buying the euro as an alternative. Additional support came from expectations of increased defence spending, particularly in Germany.
On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, as expected, the lowest level since early 2023. Also, the ECB removed language that referred to its policy stance as "restrictive," while warning that the economic outlook had worsened due to escalating trade tensions. Overall, financial markets are now betting on two or three 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year.
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