EUR/USD Analysis: Preparing for Important US Economic Data

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Still bullish.
• Today's EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1355 – 1.1280 – 1.1200.
• Today's EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1460 – 1.1500 – 1.1585.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1280 with a target of 1.1410 and a stop-loss at 1.1190.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1470 with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss at 1.1580.

Top Forex Brokers

1

Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Read Review

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

The performance of the EUR/USD currency pair remains stable and calm around and above the 1.1400 resistance ahead of a batch of important US economic releases from today until the end of the week, which will shape the future of US central bank policies. I had anticipated this stability at the beginning of the week's trading, especially with the US administration temporarily easing its tone of trade hostility against global economies.

The bullish stability of EUR/USD will receive a reaction today from the announcement of the German inflation reading and the Eurozone GDP growth reading at 12:00 PM Cairo time, and then later, more importantly, the ADP non-farm employment change reading at 03:15 PM Cairo time, the first release of US jobs data ahead of the official figures on Friday. This will be followed by the US GDP growth reading and the US employment cost index at 03:30 PM Cairo time, and then the US inflation reading favored by the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, at 05:00 PM Cairo time. All these releases will provide a clear view of the future decisions of the US Federal Reserve's policies.

Top Forex Brokers

1

Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Read Review

Trading Tips:

Traders are advised to wait for the reaction to important US economic releases to determine upcoming EUR/USD trades. We always advise against taking risks, regardless of the strength of the trading opportunities.

Expected EUR/USD Trading Scenarios:

The bullish EUR/USD trading scenario remains the most prominent so far. The RSI is in its bullish territory and has room for further gains before breaking the overbought barrier. At the same time, the MACD (12, 26 close) is in the overbought zone. The bullish momentum indicators remain the strongest until the reaction to the US economic releases. Negative data results could favor the bulls to prepare for stronger bullish breakouts, with the closest targets currently at 1.1420 and 1.1550, respectively.

The expected bearish EUR/USD scenario could occur if the US economic data figures come in stronger than all expectations and support a tightening of Federal Reserve policies, which in turn will increase the divergence between the policy of the European Central Bank, which prefers easing. Accordingly, the EUR/USD currency pair may be exposed to profit-taking selloffs. An initial break of the overall bullish trend could occur if the EUR/USD pair moves towards the support levels of 1.1270, 1.1190, and 1.1080, respectively.

According to Forex market trading, the euro (EUR) traded with mixed performance against other currencies, declining against several and stabilizing against others. This movement followed the release of the latest GfK German Consumer Confidence indicator and the general Eurozone economic sentiment reading. The GfK German Consumer Confidence for the upcoming month exceeded market expectations, rising from -24.3 to -20.6, which was better than the anticipated decline to -26. This was the highest reading since November 2024.

However, the Eurozone economic sentiment reading had a different impact, falling from 95 to 93.6, which was lower than the expected 94.5. This represented the lowest level since December of last year, ultimately putting pressure on the euro. Later, Germany is scheduled to release a range of economic indicators, including the latest retail sales, unemployment, GDP, and inflation figures. Meanwhile, the Eurozone will publish its latest GDP figures.

These economic data releases could trigger volatility in the euro, especially if they fall short of market expectations, as mid-week trading approaches.