Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1212.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1450.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1450.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1210.
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its downward trend after surging to its highest level in years on Monday. It dropped to a low of 1.1300, down from the year-to-date high of 1.1575, as fears of Jerome Powell fell.
US dollar bounces back
The EUR/USD exchange rate retreated after Donald Trump and Scott Bessent moved to calm the financial markets. In a statement on Tuesday, Bessent, the Treasury Secretary, predicted that the tariffs between the United States and China were unsustainable and that the two countries would ultimately reach a deal.
Trump echoed the same statement, saying that tariffs will come down substantially as he sought to calm the market down. The White House is even considering lowering tariffs as it seeks to de-escalate.
These events are happening after the IMF warned that the US economy would slow to 1.8% this year because of the fallout on trade. A 1.8% growth will be a drop from last year’s expansion of 2.4%.
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The EUR/USD pair also retrated after S&P Global published the flash manufacturing, services, and composite PMI numbers. In Europe, the composite PMI decreased to 50.1 this month from 50.3 in the previous month. The manufacturing PM moved to the contraction zone of 48.7, while the services figure fell to 49.7.
In the US, the composite PMI dropped from 53.5 in March to 51.2 in April, as the manufacturing sector figure rose to 50.7. These numbers mean that the manufacturing and services sectors have not been hurt substantially by the Trump’s tariffs yet.
There will be no market-moving data on Thursday. The only important data to watch will come from the US, which will release the latest initial and continuing jobless claims data. ECB’s Chief Economist, Philip Lane, will also speak and possibly provide details on the bank's next actions.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The EUR/USD exchange rate surged to a multi-year high of 1.1575 on Monday, as concerns grew that Trump might fire Jerome Powell. It has now erased some of those gains and moved to the current level of 1.1325.
The pair is attempting to retest the key support at 1.1212, the upper side of the cup and handle pattern, a popular continuation. A break-and-test pattern is a popular bullish continuation sign.
Therefore, the pair will likely drop and retest that support and then resume the bullish trend. A deeper dive below the upper side of the cup will invalidate the bullish outlook.
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