Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1142.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.0800.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit 1.0800.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1142.
The EUR/USD exchange rate remained under pressure as market participants focused on the ongoing trade war between Europe and the United States. It retreated to the important psychological point at 1.0900 and then rose slightly to 1.0930.
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ECB interest rate cuts
The EUR/USD pair has pulled back as investors anticipate more interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) as it reacts to the ongoing trade conflict between the US and the bloc.
Donald Trump has announced large tariffs on goods from the United States. His government will charge a 25% tariff on imported steel, aluminum, and vehicles from the bloc. The other products will be charged a 20% tariff, which he called a reciprocal figure.
Europe, fearing a protracted trade war, has maintained that diplomacy will be the only way out and has delayed any response measures. In a statement on Monday, he head of the EU, offered the US a zero-for-zero approach, where it would charge zero tariffs on goods that the US does the same.
Still, officials warned that they were ready to hit back at the US, which sells goods worth billions of dollars annually. Some of these goods are crude oil, pharmaceutical products, gas, machinery, and cars and parts. Applying tariffs on some of these goods would make the US less attractive and hit American companies.
Therefore, in light of this, analysts anticipate that the ECB will cut interest rates when it meets in April and in June. Rate cuts would help to devalue the euro, making European goods more affordable to other countries. They would also incentivize countries to borrow money and boost the economy.
The next key catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming FOMC minutes and US inflation data.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair rose to a high of 1.1142, its highest point since October 2024. It was trading at 1.0935, the upper side of the cup and andle chart pattern. C&H is one of the most bullish chart patterns in the market.
The pair has moved above the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), a sign that bulls are in control. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) have continued rising.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance point at 1.1142, the highest point this year. A move above that level will point to more upside to 1.1200.
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