Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3425.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3200.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3200.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3425.
The GBP/USD pair continued its bullish momentum this year as it jumped to its highest point since October last year. It has risen in the last ten consecutive days, continuing a trend that started earlier this year. It was trading at 1.3295, up from the year-to-date low of 1.2105.
GBP surged after UK inflation data
The GBP/USD pair continued rising even as the UK inflation data showed that prices continued falling this year. Data showed that the headline consumer inflation rose at an annual rate of 2.6%, much lower than the peak of 11% in 2022.
In theory, such numbers would mean that the Bank of England (BoE) should start cutting interest rates soon. However, analysts anticipate that the bank will maintain steady interest rates as inflation is expected to bounce back.
Some important household bills on energy, water, and council tax are expected to jump in April. Also, Donald Trump’s tariffs may help to boost inflation as companies adjust their prices.
The BoE has been reluctant to cut rates in this cycle even as the UK economy has softened. Its justification is that higher interest rates will lead to more inflation, triggering stagflation.
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The GBP/USD exchange rate has also jumped because of the ongoing dollar sell-off. A closer look shows that the greenback has plunged against most currencies in the past few weeks as investors question the safety of the US dollar as the trade war continues.
Donald Trump also favors a weaker dollar since he believes that it will make US exports cheaper abroad.
There will be no major economic numbers from the United States and the UK this week. Some of the top data to watch will be the flash manufacturing and services PMIs, which will come out on Tuesday.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the GBP/USD pair has been in a strong uptrend in the past few weeks. This rebound happened after the pair bottomed at 1.2708, the Major S&R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool.
The pair has moved above the 50-day moving average and the upper side of the ascending channel. Also, oscillators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Awesome Oscillator have continued rising.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue soaring as bulls target the extreme overshood point at 1.3427. This price coincides with its highest point in September last year.
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