Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3100.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3430.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3430.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3100.
The GBP/USD pair retreated as the recent rally took a breather. After initially surging to the crucial resistance level at 1.3427 on Monday, it has pulled back to 1.3265 as the US dollar index jumped.
US dollar index jumps
The GBP/USD pair has retreated as the US dollar index and American equities rebounded after falling sharply over the past few days. The dollar index rose by over 1% to $99.65, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices rose by over 1%.
This performance was a response to recent statements by US officials. Donald Trump said that he was not firing Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve. Such a move, coming after he unilaterally implemented tariffs on all countries, would have led to concerns about the role of the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.
The GBP/USD pair also pulled back after the flash manufacturing and services PMI numbers showed a drop to the contraction zone in April. The manufacturing figure remained at 44, while the services figure dropped from 51.3 to 48.9.
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These numbers raised the possibility that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in the next meeting. The BoE has maintained a more hawkish tone this year, as it has consistently held the view that inflation is significantly higher than expected.
Hopes of a BoE rate cut rose after a statement by Andrew Bailey, the head of the central bank. He hinted that the bank will need to take the risks to UK growth seriously because of Trump’s tariffs.
The next key data that may move the GBP/USD pair will be the US durable goods, existing home sales, and initial jobless claims.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair reached a high of 1.3427 this week, a notable level that marked its highest point in 2024 and the extreme overshoot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool. It then dropped to 1.13267 as some of the bullish investors took profits.
The pair remains above the 50-day moving average, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pointed downwards. Additionally, the BBTrend indicator has continued to drop and is nearing the zero line.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue to fall to the psychological point at 1.3100 and then resume its uptrend in the coming weeks.
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