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Gold Analysis: Global Tensions Support the Market. How High Will Prices Rise?

By Mahmoud Abdallah
Reviewer Justin Paolini
Fact-checker Justin Paolini
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.

Justin Paolini helps traders succeed through 1-on-1 coaching at BuildingaTrader.com. He is also Head of Trader Development at FCI Markets UK. Justin has over 15 years of experience trading Forex of which 3 were spent as a Sales Trader and as a Broker. Previously, he was an analyst at 3CAnalysis.com, producing institutional grade directional calls. His market commentary has been published on FXRenew.com, Yahoo! Finanza, Trend Online, FX Street, OrderFlowtrading.com, and ForexTell.com. For the past 8 years, he has dedicated himself to helping others succeed, and has been a guest lecturer at the University of Ancona on Trading and Market Dynamics.

Justin holds a B.A. in Economics & Finance from UNIVPM, Ancona, and a Masters in Finance, Banking & Insurance.

Justin Paolini helps traders succeed through 1-on-1 coaching at BuildingaTrader.com. He is also Head of Trader Development at FCI Markets UK. Justin has over 15 years of experience trading Forex of which 3 were spent as a Sales Trader and as a Broker. Previously, he was an analyst at 3CAnalysis.com, producing institutional grade directional calls. His market commentary has been published on FXRenew.com, Yahoo! Finanza, Trend Online, FX Street, OrderFlowtrading.com, and ForexTell.com. For the past 8 years, he has dedicated himself to helping others succeed, and has been a guest lecturer at the University of Ancona on Trading and Market Dynamics.

Justin holds a B.A. in Economics & Finance from UNIVPM, Ancona, and a Masters in Finance, Banking & Insurance.

Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:

  • General Trend: Gold is on the upside.
  • Today's gold price support points: $3,200 – $3,155 – $3,120 per ounce.
  • Today's gold price resistance points: $3,239 – $3,266 – $3,300 per ounce.

Gold Trading Signal Today:

  • Sell gold from the resistance at $3,265, with a target of $3,180 and a stop loss of $3,290.
  • Buy gold from the support at $3,158, with a target of $3,300 and a stop loss of $3,120.

Gold Analysis Today 16/04: Global Tensions Support (Chart)

Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:

Our technical outlook for the future path of the gold price remains unchanged; the upward movement is still the strongest, and global geopolitical and trade tensions, along with the weak US dollar, will continue to be drivers of strength for spot gold prices. We should also remember that gold bullion prices moved to the resistance level of $3245 per ounce, the highest in gold price history, before the gold price settled around $3225 per ounce at the time of writing the analysis. Following consecutive record gold gains in a short period, technical indicators moved to surpass overbought levels strongly, and this was evident in the performance of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the MACD indicator, and the Stochastic oscillator. Momentum indicators continue to confirm the strength of the gold buying strategy.

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Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp website follower, we still prefer buying gold from every downward level, but without risk and while monitoring the factors affecting the market, which is the main topic of discussion.

Will gold prices rise in the coming days and months?

So far, according to gold analysts' forecasts, all indications are positive for future gold price gains beyond the peaks already tested. In general, traders are still leaning toward gold. However, a sharp price decline in the short term is not unlikely. The bullish scenario for gold prices will intensify with a breakout of the $3,300 per ounce resistance, which could spur recent forecasts from major banks and global institutions that gold prices could reach peaks of $3,500–$4,000 per ounce, respectively.

Dear reader, please consider that the state of uncertainty has boosted demand for gold as a safe haven and weakened the US dollar as an alternative safe-haven asset, increasing the attractiveness of gold. On the economic front today, the release of Eurozone inflation figures will be monitored at 10:00 AM Saudi Arabia time, followed by the announcement of US retail sales figures at 1:30 PM Saudi Arabia time, and then anticipated statements from US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell at 6:30 PM Saudi Arabia time. This is in addition to the developments in global trade wars, which have intensified between the United States of America and China.

On another note, Central banks' gold bullion purchases as a hedge will influence the direction of gold prices. Key catalysts during the first quarter of 2025 included increased demand for safe havens amid global geopolitical and trade risks, a weaker US dollar due to concerns about US growth and the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, and strong inflows into global gold exchange-traded funds.

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Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.

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