EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- The overall Trend: Neutral stance awaiting further developments.
- Today's Euro/Dollar Support Levels: 1.1270 – 1.1200 – 1.1150.
- Today's Euro/Dollar Resistance Levels: 1.1380 – 1.1420 -1.1500.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1255 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1160.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1400 with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
The movements of the EUR/USD currency pair remained stable around and above the 1.1300 level within narrow ranges. As mentioned, the performance remained stable but cautiously so, amidst easing trade tensions after US President Trump reiterated that China is still open to a deal. At the same time, investors are looking ahead to key monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, Norges Bank, and Riksbank. According to expectations, the Federal Reserve may keep US interest rates unchanged following a strong jobs report in April. In contrast, the Bank of England is seen as likely to reduce rates due to increasing concerns about the economic and inflationary impact of tariffs. Similarly, both Norges Bank in Norway and Riksbank in Sweden are expected to maintain current rates.
On the economic front in the Eurozone, unexpectedly strong inflation data reinforced expectations of 60 basis points in rate cuts from the European Central Bank by the end of the year. Headline inflation held steady at 2.2% in April, slightly above the 2.1% forecast, while services inflation jumped to 3.9% and core inflation – excluding food and energy – to 2.7%, both exceeding expectations.
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Trading Tips:
Despite recent losses, the EUR/USD pair is still in the early stages of forming a bearish reversal channel, and selling pressures may increase if the European economy faces new US pressures.
According to today's European data, readings for the Services PMI for Eurozone economies will be announced. Starting with the announcement of the Spanish PMI reading at 10:15 AM Egypt time. Followed by the French Services reading at 10:50 AM Egypt time, the German Services reading at 10:55 AM Egypt time, and for the Eurozone as a whole at 11:00 AM Egypt time. Then, the announcement of the Eurozone Producer Price Index at 12:00 PM Egypt time. On the US side, US trade balance figures will be announced at 3:30 PM Egypt time.
The bullish scenario for the EUR/USD, according to performance across reliable trading company platforms, requires breaking the 1.1400 resistance for the bulls to gain strong momentum to move steadily upwards. Currently, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is relatively far from the midline, giving an opportunity for upward movement, but the MACD indicator still leans downwards, as clearly seen on the daily timeframe chart. The upward movement will determine investor sentiment towards risk appetite due to the developments in US trade wars against other global economies and the reaction to the monetary policy decisions of central banks, the closest of which are currently the US monetary policy decisions.
The EUR/USD bearish scenario: The EUR/USD bullish trading outlook may be affected if bears succeed in moving the currency pair towards the support levels of 1.1240 and 1.1180, respectively. This will confirm the downward movement of technical indicators and the beginning of a reverse downtrend. On the European stock market, European stock markets opened lower today as investors prepare for a busy week of corporate earnings and key monetary policy decisions across the region.
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