Potential signal:
- I am a buyer of gold at $3280, with a stop loss at $3200.
- I’d be aiming for $3400 at that point.
Gold continues to be an area that I watch closely, because despite the fact that indices shot higher during the trading session, the reality is that gold is holding up quite nicely. It is possible that we will end up seeing gold rallying due to the fact that the US dollar is struggling, but keep in mind that we could also be rallying because something bad is about to happen. The market is really good at anticipating these things, which will make themselves evident down the road.
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Technical Analysis
I am paying very close attention to the $3200 level, as it is an area that has been important multiple times, and of course now we have the 50 Day EMA racing toward it. Because of this, we could see even more technical support around the $3200 level and of course it is very difficult to ignore the fact that we had been very bullish for some time, and despite the fact that we have seen a lot of easy trading in this region, the reality is that it only takes one bad tweet to get the markets racing to the upside again.
All things being equal, despite the fact that we may have dodged a bit of a bully between the Americans and the Chinese, there are still plenty of reasons to think that gold goes higher. The first thing that I can think of is the fact that the central banks around the world continue to buy it, and therefore you have a huge buyer in the market at any given time. As long as that’s the case, the downside is probably somewhat limited. That being said, if we were to break down below the 50 Day EMA, then the gold market could go looking to the $3000 level where it’s even more support.
It’s also very possible that we end up forming a Bullish Harami. This is basically an inside candle that goes in the opposite direction of the preceding “mother candle.” This is a reversal signal, but quite frankly, I put more weight on the fact that we have been in a bullish pressure filled environment for some time.
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