Potential signal:
- I am a buyer of the USD at this point. I am putting my stop loss below the 0.82 level and aiming for 0.8450 above.
- I am using a SMALL position.
In the trading session on Wednesday, we saw quite a bit of noisy trading, but really we haven't had anywhere to be. That's not just in the dollar against the Swiss franc, but it's also the stock markets, commodities. So, it's been a pretty quiet situation overall and it has carried over into this market.
I think ultimately, we have a situation where traders are trying to find a bottom and we may very well have near the 0.82 level but there is a lot of noise to be had out there that will continue to influence where we go. If we can break above the 0.83 level, then we could open up the possibility of a move to the 0.84 level.
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The 0.82 underneath has been pretty significant support over the last couple of weeks. But even if we were to break down below there, I don't think we have the likely scenario of breaking down below the 0.81 level where we had seen a lot of people jumping in to pick up cheap dollars. The US dollar itself seems to be turning things around against most currencies and the Swiss franc is no exception.
Interest Rate Differentials
If the interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar the way it has. It makes a lot of sense that this pair eventually goes higher. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of choppiness.
I still look at each and every pullback as a potential buying opportunity, at least until we break down below the 0.81 level. If we do clear the 0.84 level, then we could see the beginning of something rather big.
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