- The US dollar has fallen a bit during the early hours here on Monday as we have broken below the crucial 19.50 pesos level.
- Bounce back up to test it on Friday and now it looks like we are going to try to continue the move lower.
- Ultimately, I think this is a scenario where traders will be looking at this as a market that is going to try to get down to the next support level at the 19 pesos level, but we'll just have to wait and see how long that takes.
I think this is a market that is celebrating the idea that a trade deal was more likely than not and that the situation between the Americans and the Mexicans has certainly calmed down drastically. This in and of itself is a victory for the Mexicans.
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Mexican Economy Needs to Export to the USA
With that, the Mexican economy has the ability to export to the US and therefore it does help the Mexican economy quite drastically. Now, having said that something like 30 % of all transactions in Mexico from an FX perspective are remittances from migrants.
And that has certainly been heard. So, whether or not we fall all the way back down to 16 pesos remains to be seen, but it does look like this is more of a risk on trade as the interest rate differential does favor Mexico. And in fact, it's one of the few markets I cover that actually favors a country over the U.S. So, this is something worth watching. Rallies at this point in time will continue to see resistance with particular interest at the 200 day EMA, which is currently near the 19.72 level. This is an indicator that would be closely watched by technical traders around the world.
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