Potential Signal:
- I am a buyer of this market above $65, with a stop loss at the $63.75 level.
- I am aiming for $67.50.
The light sweet crude oil market took off to the upside after the non-farm payroll announcement came out hotter than anticipated. That being said, we are facing a crucial $65 level that we must pay close attention to the $65 level of course is an area that's been important multiple times. And now I think at least it is somewhat, and you have to be a little bit artistic here with your definition, the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders. I understand that there is a wick on the first shoulder that goes all the way down to the head, but looking at just the bodies, that's pretty much the story it's telling.
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Barrier Above and a Little Artistic License
Furthermore, the first shoulder and the head make up a double bottom. So, either way, it does look like we are trying to do everything we can to turn things around and rally quite nicely. Breaking above the $65 level opens the possibility of a move to the 200 day EMA sitting just above the $68 level. A short-term pullback at this point in time could be a buying opportunity. And I'd be especially interested in oil near the 50 day EMA. which is at the bottom of the candlestick for the session. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noise, a lot of external nonsense, but at the end of the day, it does look like the jobs number basically confirmed what I think some of the commodity markets have been telling us. The global economy is not falling apart and definitely not the U.S. economy. Yes, it's a little slow, but will it be anything other than a minor recession or maybe not a recession at all? I don't think so. So, with this, it looks like more demand is coming.
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