EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bullish.
- Today's EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1440 – 1.1320 – 1.1200.
- Today's EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1600 – 1.1680 – 1.1770.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1370 with a target of 1.1520 and a stop-loss at 1.1260.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1630 with a target of 1.1300 and a stop-loss at 1.1700.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Prior to the US strikes on Iranian nuclear bases and Iran's threat to close the vital Strait of Hormuz, the EUR/USD was trading stably around and above the 1.1500 resistance. I expect the weekend events to have a strong and direct reaction on EUR/USD trading. As of now, across licensed forex trading platforms, the stronger trend for EUR/USD is bullish. A break of this trend won't occur without the EUR/USD price moving towards the 1.1375 and 1.1250 support levels, respectively. Supporting the bullish outlook, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is stable near a reading of 60, which supports bulls for further advancement. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are still in a bullish position. Continued factors supporting EUR/USD gains could give bulls the confidence to break the psychological barrier of 1.1630, the pair's highest level in over three and a half years.
Trading Tips:
We still advise selling EUR/USD from every upward level, but without taking risks and carefully monitoring the factors influencing currency prices.
Today, Monday, EUR/USD trading will react to the announcement of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings for the manufacturing and services sectors in major European economies and the United States. This is in addition to statements from several Federal Reserve officials. The day starts with PMI readings for France at 10:15 AM Egypt time, followed by German readings at 10:30 AM Egypt time, and the overall Eurozone readings at 11:00 AM Egypt time. Expectations strongly point to an improvement in the index readings for the two most important sectors in the Eurozone economy.
Meanwhile, the PMI readings for the US manufacturing and services sectors will be announced at 4:45 PM Egypt time.
Why Have EUR/USD Gains Stalled Recently?
According to forex market experts, the US dollar made gains in recent trading. The Federal Reserve's decision and capital account data did not weaken the US dollar; instead, the US currency received net support from geopolitical concerns. Overall, fears about US intervention will make traders more cautious about selling the dollar. Experts believe that rising global crude oil prices could lead to further losses for EUR/USD. According to forex market trading, the US dollar received net support from geopolitical concerns amid the ongoing Israeli Iranian conflict, with oil prices approaching their four-month highs. For its part, the US administration continues to discuss whether to attack Iranian nuclear targets with bunker-buster bombs.
Furthermore, several reports indicated the possibility of an attack over the weekend. However, Trump is intentionally trying to evade giving a clear signal.
On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve kept US interest rates at 4.50%, in line with strong expectations. For his part, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell affirmed that the Fed is in a good position, and that the US central bank would be better positioned to act if it waited a few months. Powell believed that the threat of tariffs had somewhat abated, but he remains concerned about potential inflation trends, despite welcoming the positive readings for the past three months.
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