Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3400.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3615.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3615.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3400.
The GBP/USD retreated to the psychological point at 1.3500, down from the year-to-date high of 1.3615. It dropped after the UK published the recent jobs numbers and waited for the upcoming US consumer inflation report.
UK jobs and US inflation report
The GBP/USD pair remained unchanged on Wednesday as traders reacted to the latest UK jobs data. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.6% in April, while the economy created 89,000 jobs. The average earnings growth slowed from 5.5% to 5.2%.
The slowdown in hiring and the economy led analysts to predict that the Federa; Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the next meeting. It has already slashed interest rates by 0.25% this year, and analysts anticipate more cuts later this year.
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The ONS will next react to the upcoming UK GDP, manufacturing, and industrial production data. Economists expect these numbers to show more moderation of the UK economy.
The most important GBP/USD news will be the upcoming US inflation data on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% on a MoM basis, while the core CPI rose from 0.2% to 0.3%.
These numbers will translate to the headline CPI rising from 2.3% to 2.5% and the core inflation figure moving from 2.8% to 2.9%. Analysts believe that inflation rose in May as companies started to adjust their prices because of Donald Trump’s tariffs. They expect the figure to continue rising this year.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The 12-hour chart shows that the GBP/USD exchange rate has been in a strong uptrend in the past few weeks. It has jumped from the psychological point at 1.2100 in January to 1.3615, a 12.54% surge.
The pair crossed the crucial resistance level at 1.3435, the upper side of the cup-and-handle pattern, a popular continuation sign. Most recently, it has formed a rising wedge pattern, a popular reversal sign comprising of two ascending and converging trendlines.
A rising wedge is one of the most bearish reversal pattern. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as traders target the psychological point at 1.3400. A move above th resistance point at 1.3615, the highest point this year, will invalidate the bearish outlook.
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