Traders who have been seeking upside price action in the NZD/USD may have found profitable upside in in recent weeks, this as the currency pair has shown an ability to sustain highs above the 0.60100 mark recently.
The NZD/USD is around the 0.60115 mark for the moment. The ability of the currency pair to rise in a rather steady fashion since the 4th of April is clear. While the road higher has certainly seen volatile days interspersed, the NZD/USD continues to show a flair for challenging resistance and sustaining upwards momentum. However, traders cannot bet blindly on constant higher values because reversals lower as always in Forex are part of the speculative game.
As the NZDZ/USD trades near its current price it is once again testing ground seen in the immediate aftermath of the U.S election. Financial institutions which have shown nervousness and anxious sentiment the past handful of months do appear to be growing calmer. But the potential for a sudden storm to emerge in Forex and for the NZD/USD is a constant threat.
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Perceived USD Weakness and the NZD/USD
The USD continues to show weakness in Forex against many major currencies, the NZD/USD has benefitted from this sentiment with a rather solid recovery. Having touched depths below the 0.56000 ratio since the first week of January this year and until the first week of April occassionally, the NZD/USD is now demonstrating what appears to be the capability of higher ground. But for marks above the 0.61000 level to be sustained further impetus will need to develop for financial institutions for them to lean into more confident outlooks.
The potential of a U.S interest rate cut is starting to get the attention of some analysts via the lower inflation statistics, but the Federal Reserve continues to publicly ask for patience saying it is uncertain about the mid-term. The U.S will release jobs numbers this coming Friday and this may affect sentiment, but tough talk from China and the U.S regarding tariff negotiations over the past few days may counteract any positive data.
Sustained Higher Ground and the Near-Term
Traders who believe higher NZD/USD ratios can develop cannot be blamed, and over the mid-term this may prove to be the correct outlook. Financial institutions positioning commercial contracts for clients via cash forwards however in the near-term may look at the current NZD/USD and believe fair equilibrium has been reached.
- The door is open for a potential sideways range to emerge in the NZD/USD.
- Until more clues are known regarding a possible Federal Reserve rate cut, and possible agreement between China and the U.S with tariff agreements, big players will be careful.
- Short-term traders need to remain cautious and not become overconfident, this while seeking quick hitting wagers that use conservative leverage and solid risk management.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 0.60160
Current Support: 0.60080
High Target: 0.60350
Low Target: 0.59950
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