- The Turkish Lira experienced a significant decline against the US Dollar last week, falling from an opening level of 0.0371 to close at 0.0254, its lowest level in months, marking a loss exceeding 31.71%.
- This sharp decline reflects the persistent economic pressures on Turkey, amid the absence of real steps from monetary policy to halt the currency's deterioration.
- With this substantial decline, traders are awaiting technical and economic signals to determine whether these levels represent a temporary price bottom or if the deterioration will continue in the coming days.
Technical Analysis of the Turkish Lira Price:
The Turkish Lira's price action over the past week shows a sharp collapse below key support levels, after failing to hold above 0.0370. The highest price recorded was 0.0391, but the price quickly declined rapidly to close at 0.0254, approaching its daily low of 0.0253. This strong decline indicates a break of the short and medium-term uptrend line, with the price entering a "free fall" zone where there are no clear strong technical supports below the current price. Technical indicators like MACD and RSI show oversold conditions, but without clear signs of an actual reversal yet.
Suggested Entry Points:
Bullish Entry Points (Speculative Only):
- Entry: If the price stabilizes above 0.0250 and a bullish reversal candle appears on the 4-hour timeframe.
- Buy on a breakout and sustained hold above the 0.0275 level.
- Targets: 0.0290 – 0.0305 – 0.0320
- Stop Loss: 0.0240
Bearish Entry Points (Stronger Trend):
- Entry: Sell from the 0.0275 – 0.0285 level if it rebounds without clear buying power.
- Sell on a clear and sustained break below the 0.0250 support.
- Targets: 0.0240 – 0.0225 – 0.0210
- Stop Loss: 0.0290
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TRYUSD Price Forecast for the Coming Days:
In the absence of effective intervention from the Turkish Central Bank, whether through interest rate hikes or extraordinary measures, the Turkish Lira is expected to continue its decline towards 0.0240 and possibly 0.0220 this week. However, if positive unexpected data or statements supporting the Lira are released, we might see a temporary rebound towards 0.0280 – 0.0300, but this would not alter the overall downtrend.
USD/TRY Trading Signals:
The continuation of the downward trend makes sell trades safer at present, especially with every limited rebound. Selling positions can be entered at short-term resistance levels, targeting new support levels. Buying, on the other hand, should be purely speculative, and only with confirmed technical signals and a strict stop-loss.
Tips for USD/TRY Traders:
Avoid large positions during periods of sharp volatility. Also, monitor economic news and political decisions that may directly affect the Turkish Lira. Strict capital management is the first line of defence in such an environment, especially with sudden declines and rapid price movements.
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