EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bullish.
- Today's EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1720 – 1.1650 – 1.1580.
- Today's EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1800 – 1.1880 – 1.2000.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1590 with a target of 1.1820 and a stop-loss at 1.1460.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1820 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1900.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
As expected, the EUR/USD pair remained bullish, holding near its highest level in more than three years, with gains extending to the 1.1788 resistance level, where it is currently trading. As previously mentioned, the EUR/USD pair will remain bullish due to selling pressure on the US dollar due to the US Federal Reserve's policy interventions, along with growing US financial concerns.
In Europe, investors have been assessing a wave of inflation data from the region's largest economies and their implications for the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy path. According to economic calendar data, consumer price inflation in Germany unexpectedly fell to 2.0% in June from 2.1% in May, returning to the ECB's target for the first time since October 2024 and defying expectations for a rise to 2.2%. In contrast, inflation in France, Italy, and Spain rose slightly, although it remained relatively subdued. Adding to the cautious sentiment, German retail sales recorded a sharp decline. Despite these mixed signals, money markets continue to price in an ECB terminal rate of approximately 1.75% – 1.80%. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos reiterated on Monday that the current policy stance is appropriate but emphasized the importance of maintaining flexibility amidst ongoing uncertainty.
Trading Tips:
Be aware that the recent gains in EUR/USD have been significant and consecutive, which could support renewed selling for profit-taking at any time.
Will the EUR/USD rise to the psychological high of 1.20?
According to forex currency experts' forecasts, the EUR/USD trend remains positive; the medium-term trend continues upward and is optimistic, as we have observed a multi-month sequence of higher lows and higher highs since March. The 1.1800 resistance will remain a distinct target for bulls, but don't forget that technical indicators are heading towards overbought territory, led by the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) and the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator. Overall, we continue to see US dollar risks and further EUR/USD gains; however, the current combination of negative risks for the US dollar makes the first half of July one of the best opportunities for a potential breakthrough of the 1.20 psychological resistance.
Today's EUR/USD trading will be impacted by the announcement of Eurozone inflation figures, with results due at 12:00 PM Egypt time. The inflation rate is expected to reach 2.0% from 1.9%. A figure below 2.0% would lead to new speculation on further central bank rate cuts during the third quarter and support the Euro. There will also be influential statements from Federal Reserve officials Jerome Powell and ECB Governor Christine Lagarde at 4:30 PM Egypt time. At 5:00 PM Egypt time, the ISM Manufacturing PMI and US Job Openings will be announced.
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