EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Returning to an upward trend.
- Today's EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1730 – 1.1680 – 1.1600.
- Today's EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1785 – 1.1850 – 1.1900.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1660 with a target of 1.1880 and a stop loss of 1.1590.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1810 with a target of 1.1620 and a stop loss of 1.1900.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
For four consecutive trading sessions, bulls have been attempting to take control of the EUR/USD currency pair, achieving gains towards the 1.1775 resistance level. This comes with a clear break from the pair's recent bearish reversal, which tested the 1.1556 support level last week. The currency pair's gains have been amplified by a breakthrough in resolving the US-EU trade dispute. Therefore, it is expected that a resolution to this "war" could deprive the Euro of the fuel needed to continue its ascent against the dollar. This is evident in mid-week currency price movements, as investors feel we are in the final phase of a rapid and turbulent period of global trade reordering orchestrated by US President Donald Trump. According to forex currency market trading, the Euro's price fell against all its G10 currency counterparts after Trump welcomed a new trade agreement with Japan, a country he had long accused of enjoying an unfair trade advantage over the United States.
Details include a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, as well as various other measures by Japan to help boost imports from the United States. However, for the euro exchange rate, the details are irrelevant; what matters is that the Japan agreement sets the framework for the remaining final agreements, most notably those with the European Union.
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Future of Recent EUR/USD Gains:
According to forex trading experts, the EUR/USD exchange rate has risen by 13.24% in 2025, supported by Trump's global trade reordering and domestic policies, which have prompted investors to rebalance their portfolios and hedge against further US dollar weakness. The Euro has proven to be a primary beneficiary of this hedging activity, while its significant liquidity and deep fixed-income markets make it a reliable reserve currency at a time when doubts are being raised about the US dollar's status. It is too early to declare an end to the Euro's upward wave in 2025, but there is a growing sentiment among analysts that the EUR/USD pair is entering a period of consolidation.
Obviously, the movement of technical indicators on the daily timeframe chart confirms the beginning of a bullish shift for the Euro/US dollar price. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is stable around a reading of 63, supporting further advancement by the bulls. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are turning upward. A push by bulls towards the 1.1820 resistance will restore the strength of the Euro/US dollar pair's movement towards the psychological 1.2000 resistance in the near future, which in turn will move technical indicators towards strong overbought levels. On the downside, the 1.1600 support level will remain the most important station for the currency pair's reversal downward.
Today's Euro-dollar trading will be affected by the announcement of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings for the manufacturing and services sectors of Eurozone economies, starting with the French figures at 10:15 AM EEST, then German figures at 10:30 AM EEST, and for the Eurozone as a whole at 11:00 AM EEST. This will be followed by the most important event for the Euro: the European Central Bank (ECB) policy announcement at 3:15 PM EEST and ECB President Lagarde's statements at 3:45 PM EEST.
Trading Tips:
Traders currently advise considering selling, not buying, the EUR/USD, but without risk, as the pair will continue to experience strong and sustained volatility.
On the US dollar side, attention will be on the announcement of US weekly jobless claims at 3:30 PM EEST, followed by the announcement of US manufacturing and services PMI readings at 4:45 PM EEST.
Regarding the other highly anticipated event for EUR/USD, a trade agreement between the United States and the European Union remains elusive and could cause market disruption. Paradoxically, economic plans suggest that a failure by the United States and the European Union to reach an agreement would actually benefit the Euro. In the past, Trump's first presidential term also saw tense negotiations between the two sides on trade; however, agreements were always reached. The administration's signals and behavior suggest that this time will be no different, meaning Euro trading has already begun to lose enough trade war catalysts to sustain its upward trend.
Other factors will be needed to push it to the psychological 1.20 resistance level targeted by many institutional analysts in their forecasts. These factors could include a temporary halt to the ECB's interest rate cutting cycle, which will become clear in the ECB's monetary policy meeting guidance today, Thursday. If the ECB halts its rate-cutting cycle and the US Federal Reserve continues with cuts, the path of interest rates will evolve in a way that supports further gains for the Euro against the US dollar.
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