EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bearish bias.
- Today's EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1500 – 1.1430 – 1.1300.
- Today's EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1630 – 1.1700 – 1.1780.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1470 with a target of 1.1780 and a stop loss of 1.1390.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1800 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop loss of 1.1900.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
EUR/USD selling pressure continues ahead of significant and exciting events in the forex markets. Bears are stabilizing the Euro/dollar pair around the 1.1520 support level, the lowest for the currency pair in a month. At the start of the week's trading, the currency pair saw its largest daily decline in over two months, reaching its weakest level since June 20.
Overall, the recent lower Euro trading reflects growing investor concern that the newly announced trade agreement between the United States and the European Union disproportionately benefits the US, doing little to improve the Eurozone's economic outlook. The agreement has drawn strong criticism from France, while others – including German Chancellor Merz – have emphasized the potential negative impact on European exporters and, consequently, on economic growth. Meanwhile, market participants have turned their attention to the Federal Reserve's policy decision, scheduled for today, Wednesday, ahead of President Trump's August 1st tariff deadline.
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In Europe, expectations for interest rate cuts have also shifted, with markets now pushing back the probability of a 25-basis point cut to March 2026, estimating a 90% chance by then. For December, the probability of a cut has fallen below 70%.
Technical levels for the EUR/USD chart:
According to the daily timeframe chart, the EUR/USD price is in a phase of breaking its bullish trend. A move towards the 1.1500 support will confirm the strength of bear control and signal readiness for stronger losses before technical indicators reach strong oversold levels. After recent selling operations, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is stable around a reading of 41, having broken below the midline that separates bear and bull control. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are turning downwards.
A bullish scenario for the Euro/dollar over the same timeframe would require a return to the vicinity of the 1.1660 and 1.1750 resistance levels, respectively. Today's trading session, Wednesday, July 30, 2025, includes several important and impactful events for the EUR/USD pair. On the European side, we'll see announcements for French economic growth at 8:30 AM EEST, German growth at 11:00 AM EEST, and Eurozone growth as a whole at 12:00 PM EEST.
On the US side, the primary focus will be on the ADP non-farm employment change at 3:15 PM EEST, and US GDP growth at 3:30 PM EEST. Then, the most significant event will be the Federal Reserve's policy decision at 9:00 PM EEST.
Trading Tips:
Traders advise caution in reacting to the results of today's economic data and influential events, which will determine the fate of the weekly and monthly closing of the EUR/USD pair.
Will the Euro Decline Sharply Against the Dollar in the Coming Days?
According to the views and forecasts of forex trading experts, the EUR/USD exchange rate faces the risk of a deeper decline. Analysts say that the US dollar now has an opportunity to revisit its strong domestic fundamentals after trade tensions subsided following the latest trade agreement between the EU and the US. According to performance across reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD pair fell by 1.30% on Monday, marking its largest daily decline since May, with further selling observed on Tuesday, hitting a low of 1.1527. The extensive selling of the currency pair is widely attributed to interpretations that the agreement was biased towards the United States, as the comprehensive 15% tariff on EU imports is expected to weaken Eurozone exports.
However, the most likely factor behind the sell-off following the agreement is a rebalancing of the market, away from the increasingly one-sided bet, in favor of a stronger euro and a weaker US dollar.
Overall, the risk facing Euro bulls is that this technical re-positioning could develop into more sustained heavy selling, practically meaning that the 2025 peak has been surpassed. For the dollar's recovery to broaden, there needs to be a return to "US exceptionalism" trading, which is plausible given the exposure to artificial intelligence and associated outperformance offered by US stock markets, which foreign investors eagerly seek.
Furthermore, US interest rates are higher than those elsewhere, which reinforces the US dollar's strength. Interest rates are supported by economic data that has proven stronger than expected just three months ago, with talk of a tariff-induced recession fading.
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