- The natural gas market has fallen during the early hours of Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
- The market is currently testing the $3.20 level, which had been a swing low previously, and begins with a certain amount of support that extends down to the $3.00 level.
- The $3.00 level is the bottom of the overall consolidation area that I think the market is currently in, and therefore you have to look at it through the prism of a potential bounce back if we do get close to the $3.00 level.
Seasonality Might Be Different
The seasonality in this market might be a bit different at the moment, due to the fact that the Europeans are not buying natural gas from Russia, so despite the fact that this is a typically quiet time of year there is still plenty of buyers out there in comparison to the usual action that we see this time of year. That being said though, I don’t necessarily think that the market is likely to suddenly become extraordinarily bullish, I think it’s more or less a “fade the rallies” type of situation that we have here. In fact, that’s how I have traded natural gas for some time now.
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If we were to somehow rally from here with any strength, I think you probably have a bit of a ceiling near the previous uptrend line, and of course the $3.60 level. Anything that raises toward that area and forms a wick, I am more than willing to start selling again. Ultimately, this is a market that I am very shot at the moment, but I don’t know if we will be able to break down below $3.00 this year, mainly because of the extremity waiting circumstances in the European Union, and you could make a little bit of an argument for artificial intelligence demanding more electricity, which of course quite often is produced by burning natural gas as well.
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