Potential signal:
- If the US dollar drops below the 1.35 CAD level, I’m selling with a stop loss at 1.36 and a target of 1.3150.
- If the US dollar breaks above the 1.38 CAD level, I’m a buyer with a stop loss near the 1.3680 level and a target of the 1.41 level initially.
During trading on we have seen the US dollar drop a bit against the Canadian dollar, only to find support near the 1.3550 level. This is an area that’s been supported a fairly well over the last month and ½, and it looks like it is going to continue to see buyers in that overall region. In the short term, it looks like the buyers are in fact supporting this market, but I also recognize that we have a lot of noisy behavior, as the trade situation between the Americans in the Canadians continues to drag on.
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During the trading session on Wednesday, we have received word that the Americans have reached trade negotiation deals with Indonesia, Philippines, Japan, and the European Union. This could lead Canada out the cold, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens with the Canadian dollar going forward. The market of course has been very choppy and noisy, but quite frankly the situation between the Americans and the Canadians continues to be a long-term dragged out problem, so therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that we could continue to see this market just cried. However, sooner or later people were going to ask questions as to what’s going on with the Canadians, and we could see the Canadian dollar punished as a result.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this market is somewhat flat at the moment, perhaps with an eye on the longer term uptrend, but the intermediate term has of course been somewhat negative. Because of this, we have to ask questions as to whether or not we are starting to form some type of new range, or if we are finding enough value in the greenback to turn things around and send this market to the upside. If the US dollar can break above the 1.38 level, then it’s likely that the market could go looking at the 1.44 level over the longer term.
On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 1.35 level, that probably sends the US dollar much lower, perhaps incongruence with US dollar weakness around the world. If that happens, I’ll start selling.
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