- The US dollar rallied against the Indian rupee during the trading session on Friday but gave back quite a bit of the gains to show signs of exhaustion.
- Because of this, I think you have a situation where traders are simply trying to determine whether or not they can continue to push the US dollar higher, especially against emerging market currencies which might be struggling in an environment where there are a lot of trade concerns out there.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis for this market is somewhat bullish, but you should also keep in mind that there is a lot of supply near the ₹87 level that could cause some issues. Over the longer term, I don’t like the idea of getting too aggressive in this market, mainly due to the fact that we are in the midst of summer trading, which can make things a little bit slow and choppy. This is a market that given enough time probably goes looking toward the ₹87 level, which I think would be difficult to break above. On the downside, I think that you have plenty of support near the 50 Day EMA, currently at the ₹85.74 level, we then have the 200 Day EMA near the ₹85.40 level, which I think could cause buyers to come back into the market.
This pair can move quite a bit on risk appetite, as the US dollar is considered to be a safety currency, while the Indian rupee is an emerging market currency, and therefore people will typically buy it only when they feel confident about global trade or the overall direction of the global economy in general. With this, I think you’ve got a situation where you will have to be somewhat cautious with your position size, but I think buying on the dips probably makes the most sense here. I’m not saying that we are going to take off to the upside quite drastically, just that it’s going to be more or less a grind.
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