- The US dollar rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday against the Mexican peso, as we have seen interest rates in America rise a bit, mainly due to the fact that markets had to react to a weaker than anticipated ADP Non-Farm Payroll number.
- We have to worry about the Thursday session bringing the BLS Non-Farm Payroll number as well. It’s possible that traders are just simply trying to get out of US dollar shorts ahead of the number, because obviously it will cause a lot of noisy behavior.
Trend Remains
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The US dollar selling off against the Mexican peso has been going on for a couple of months now, especially as Donald Trump seems to have shifted focus from Mexico to Canada, and the Mexicans has benefited from working with the Americans almost immediately. Because of this, exports from Mexico continue to flow into the United States, although there are certain issues when it comes to illegal immigration. Nonetheless, despite the fact that remittances are not flowing into Mexico like they used to, the reality is that the US dollar is a bit softer against most currencies over the last couple of months, and the Mexican peso, with its hefty interest rate policy, has been a major beneficiary.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think will see selling pressure at any attempt to rally from here, and I believe that the 19 MXN level could be very difficult to break above. Even if we get above there, near the 19.2470 level, we have the 50 Day EMA which also will provide a little bit of resistance. On the downside, if we break down below the 18.65 MXN level, then I think we just continue to grind away lower, perhaps eventually try to get to the 18 MXN level.
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