Potential signal:
- I’m a buyer of Bitcoin at $15,000 level, with a stop loss at $13,000, and a target of $119,850
Bitcoin fell on Thursday to reach toward the $112,000 level, an area that has been important more than once, as resistance previously. If we were to break down below there, then we could go to the $110,000 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that I think a lot of interest would be found. That being said, this is a market that suddenly finds itself in trouble, and a lot of risk appetite out there seems to be in the midst of being destroyed, which is absolutely toxic for Bitcoin.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for Bitcoin on the long term charts is still very strong, but I also recognize that we are in a scenario where a lot of traders will be looking at this through the prism of whether or not we are finding problems here, or if we see the market just simply dropping back to an area of high demand. Keep in mind that Bitcoin will also suffer at the hands of low volume, as the Wall Street traders are basically away on holiday at the moment.
Furthermore, we have the Jackson Hole, Wyoming Symposium that’s going on, and Jerome Powell will be giving a speech during the Friday session. This will have a direct effect on what happens with the US dollar, central bank monetary policy expectations, and of course a whole host of risk related things. Keep in mind that Bitcoin is a Wall Street ETF at the moment, and it’s not so much a “wild west crypto.” In other words, institutions matter, and institutions right now are just not putting a lot of money into this. While I am not necessarily looking for massive doom at the moment, it certainly doesn’t look like a market that is ready to the upside recapture the 50 Day EMA, I think a trade sets up for a short-term move like the overall trend.
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