EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bearish.
- Today's Euro-Dollar Support Points: 1.1530 – 1.1450 – 1.1300.
- EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1660 – 1.1740 – 1.1870.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the from support level of 1.1490, target 1.1700, stop loss 1.1400.
- Sell EUR/USD From the resistance level of 1.1700, target 1.1500, stop loss 1.1780.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
At the start of this relatively calm week, the EUR/USD price is stabilizing around last week's closing level of 1.1586, recovering from its stronger losses last week that touched the lowest level for the currency pair in nearly two months at 1.1392. The euro-dollar price has moved higher again, supported by a weaker-than-expected US jobs report that fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September.
According to the economic calendar, U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 73,000 in July, which is below the forecast of 100,000, while U.S. job figures for May and June were also sharply revised downward. As a result, financial markets are now pricing in a 75% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, a sharp increase from 45% before the report.
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In Europe, further interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) seem less likely, as inflation is expected to remain above the central bank's forecasts in the near term. However, financial markets have priced in a 60% probability of a 25-basis point rate cut by the ECB by December, up from 50% before the release of the U.S. data. Recently, economic figures showed that eurozone consumer price inflation stabilized at 2.0% in July, slightly exceeding the 1.9% expected by markets. Investors also considered the impact of the newly announced U.S. tariffs, which impose a 15% duty on EU exports to the United States.
Trading Tips:
Traders are advised to take advantage of the recent decline in EUR/USD prices to build a new buying base for the currency pair, while trading without risk, regardless of the strength of available trading opportunities.
Will the Euro-Dollar Rise in the Coming Days?
According to the performance on the daily timeframe chart, the EUR/USD is breaking the upward trend, and as I mentioned before, stability below the 1.16 level would bring enough momentum for the bears to advance strongly downwards, which is exactly what happened. Its recent losses moved the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) to a reading of 33, confirming the bearish shift. It is now stable around a reading of 49 after the reaction to the U.S. jobs data, which is closer to the midline that confirms neutrality between bears and bulls. At the same time, the MACD indicator will cautiously begin to turn upwards.
Today's euro-dollar trading with a free no-deposit bonus is not anticipating any major or influential releases, and the reaction to the recent key U.S. economic releases may be ongoing. The change in Spanish employment will be announced at 10:00 AM Cairo time, followed by the Sentix Eurozone Confidence Index at 11:30 AM Cairo time. Then, U.S. factory orders will be released at 5:00 PM Cairo time.
The scenario for a euro-dollar ascent on the daily chart requires the bulls to return to the vicinity of the resistance levels of 1.1685 and 1.1740, respectively. Otherwise, the stronger downward shift will persist.
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