Today’s Gold Analysis Overview:
- The overall Gold Trend: Neutral with a bearish bias.
- Today's Gold Support Levels: $3,330 – $3,290 – $3,250 per ounce.
- Today's Gold Resistance Levels: $3,385 – $3,410 – $3,460 per ounce.
Today's Gold Trading Signals:
- Buy gold from the support level of $3,290, with a target of $3,400 and a stop loss of $3,250.
- Sell gold from the resistance level of $3,400, with a target of $3,270 and a stop loss of $3,440.
Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today:
Renewed selling pressure on gold at the start of this week caused the gold price index to fall from the $3,405 per ounce resistance level. The losses extended to the $3,342 support level, where the price is now stable at the beginning of today's trading session, ahead of the announcement of US inflation figures at 3:30 PM Egypt time.
Prior to this, gold prices experienced strong volatility after US President Donald Trump announced that gold trading would not be subject to tariffs, which eased concerns about a sharp increase in import costs. A previous decision by US Customs had stated that 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars imported from Switzerland would be subject to a 39% tariff, which would also have applied to bars from any other country under prevailing US tariff rates. Trump's reversal was part of his broader policy of imposing "reciprocal" tariffs on dozens of US trading partners, which took effect on August 7.
In a separate move, the US president signed an executive order extending the suspension of high US tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days. This decision, which was expected following recent trade talks in Stockholm, was made just hours before the suspension was set to expire at midnight.
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Currently, Investors are now shifting their focus to key US economic data releases this week—including the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and retail sales—for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
Before These Key Events: Gold Investors Are Asking: Will Gold Prices Rise in the Coming Days?
The answer: Yes, and buying gold bullion during any price decline remains the best trading strategy. Based on the performance on the daily chart, the $3,310, $3,245, and $3,200 support levels will remain the most prominent buying levels for gold in the coming days, with no risk taken, regardless of the strength of the trading opportunities.
Global geopolitical tensions, global central bank gold purchases, and the weakness of the US dollar will remain the most prominent factors supporting the continued rise in the price of gold.
Technically: Based on the daily chart, the recent losses in gold have pushed the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) below the midline, which supports a downward shift, especially if the US dollar recovers. At the same time, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines have begun to turn downwards. On the upside, the $3,400 per ounce resistance will remain the most important level for bulls to gain further control over the gold price direction.
Cautious rise in the US dollar ahead of inflation figures
According to the forex market, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, rose slightly to 98.4 yesterday, recovering from its lowest level last Friday, as traders prepared for the key US inflation data scheduled for release today.
In this regard, US inflation in July is expected to rise by 0.2%, slightly less than the 0.3% recorded in June, while the annual rate is likely to have accelerated for the third consecutive month to 2.8%. The core CPI is also expected to rise by 0.3%. Despite persistent inflation, financial markets are pricing in an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point federal rate cut next month, with another cut factored in by the end of the year.
Traders are also awaiting developments in the US-China trade talks, with most expecting another 90-day extension to allow for more negotiations. Meanwhile, attention is turning to the Friday meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin, aimed at finding a solution to the conflict in Ukraine.
Finally, a series of economic data releases—including the Producer Price Index, retail sales, and industrial production—will be closely watched, along with any changes in the Federal Reserve or political pressure from the US administration.
US Treasury Yields Decline
On another front that affects the gold market, and according to performance on trusted trading platforms, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.28% yesterday after reaching its highest level in a week last Friday. This comes as traders increase their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, ahead of the release of the US CPI. It is expected that inflation in July may have risen by 0.2%, slightly less than the 0.3% in June, while the annual rate is likely to have accelerated for the third consecutive month to 2.8%. The core CPI is expected to rise by 0.3%.
Despite persistent inflation, financial markets still expect an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, with another full reduction calculated by the end of the year.
Trading Tips:
Wait until gold prices return to stronger support levels before considering buying again, but without risk.
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