Silver
Silver markets spent most of the week selling off, as we have seen a lot of volatility around the world. At this point, it’s worth noting that the US dollar sold off a bit but held firm against certain currencies. In other words, it looks like the volatility is only somewhat justified, and I think at this point in time it’s worth noting that the $36 level seems to be a significant support level just waiting to happen. If we can recapture the $37.50 level, we will probably reenter the range that we had been in during the previous month.
GBP/USD
The British pound has plunged for most of the week, testing the crucial 1.32 region. However, we have found a little bit of support at the end of the week as the jobs number in the United States was horrible. This has the US dollar on the back foot just a little bit, but quite frankly, it has held its own fairly well, all things being considered. If we break down below the 50 Week EMA at the 1.3063 region, I suspect that the British pound will start to fall apart. If the British pound falls apart against the US dollar, the greenback probably swallows everything else right along with it.
EUR/USD
The euro dropped fairly significantly during the course of the week to peek below the 1.15 level for a while but did recover a bit after the Non-Farm Payroll number came out of the United States much weaker than anticipated. This is an ugly candlestick regardless, so I do think this is a situation where if we get any follow-through whatsoever, namely a breakdown below the bottom of the weekly candlestick from the one that we just printed, the euro could be in serious trouble at that point. On the other hand, if we recapture the 1.16 level, then it’s likely that this pair will look likely to reach the 1.18 level eventually.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin has had a tough week, but quite frankly Bitcoin had been a little stretched. Keep in mind that Bitcoin is now essentially an ETF, so with Wall Street traders out there on summer break in the next few weeks, the volume won’t be as strong as it once was. Because of this, we could very well see Bitcoin continue to pull back, but I suspect that there is a massive amount of support between the $110,000, extending all the way down to the $100,000 level. In other words, this will more likely than not just end up being a short-term correction.
USD/MXN
The US dollar has rallied significantly against the Mexican peso during the previous week, despite the fact that the Mexicans have received a 90 day extension on tariffs. This is mainly due to the fact that the Non-Foreign Payroll announcement in the United States was so weak, suggesting that perhaps we are going to see a problem in the US economy. While one would think that hurts the US dollar, the reality is that Mexico is almost solely depended on the US economy for exports, and therefore it’s the same thing as a shopkeeper having their best customer lose some of its purchasing power. While the US dollar struggled against multiple other currencies, Mexico will be especially sensitive.
Gold
Gold markets initially fell a bit for the week but then turned around to show extreme strength on Friday. What I do worry about with this market is the fact that we went straight up in the air roughly $40 on Friday, only to flatten out and do nothing. In other words, the candlestick you are looking at on the weekly chart represents about 2 hours’ worth of trading by the time you truly break it down. At this point in time, we are still very much in the larger consolidation between the $3200 level in the bottom, and the $3500 level at the top. I don’t think much changes, but if we were to break above the $3500 level, then I think the market is likely to go looking at the $3800 level.
USD/JPY
The US dollar initially spiked against the Japanese yen during the course of the week, but the jobs report the came out on Friday completely wiped out those gains. We now have a bit of a shooting star for the week sitting on top of the 50 Day EMA, which was preceded by a hammer. In other words, we have a big fight on our hands, and it’ll be interesting to see who wins. As far as interest rate differential is concerned and still favors the US dollar so although I expect a lot of noisy behavior, I still favor the upside overall, at least until we break down below the ¥146 level.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has fallen pretty significantly during the course of the trading week, reaching toward the 0.6440 level, but what I find interesting is that despite the fact that the US dollar had plenty of reason to sell off quite drastically against the Aussie on Friday, it held its own. This tells you just how weak the Australian dollar is in general, as it has underperformed against the US dollar in comparison to its colleagues for months now. I believe this is a pair that could lead as a signal for US dollar buying if it starts to drop.
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