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S&P 500 Analysis: Hard Fought Gains Continue with Choppy Conditions

By Robert Petrucci

Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services....

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The S&P 500 is near the 6,387.00 ratio in future markets as of this writing. Yesterday a high of nearly 6,412.00 was seen, which remained below record heights reached the end of July when the 6,450.00 was flirted upon.

S&P 500 Analysis 12/08: Choppy Conditions (Chart)

A tough fight higher for the S&P 500 continues to be seen. Yesterday’s highs touched the 6,412.00 level, but they certainly did not show enough force to reach for the apex marks of 6,450.00 which were traded near on the 31st of July. The S&P 500 however continues to remain within escalated heights and although some headwinds are present, a stubborn group of buyers keeps pushing the index towards higher values.

Choppiness is rather interesting for day traders who technically try to take advantage of support and resistance levels via short-term wagers. However, pursuing the price action in the S&P 500 for speculative bets is much more difficult compared to mid and long-term investors who are comfortably watching the S&P 500 and simply letting their money work quietly.

Federal Reserve and Near-Term Implications

The highs made on the 31st of July and then the rather choppy waters that have followed afterwards can be explained rather easily. Bad U.S jobs number on the 1st of August caused a drop in the S&P 500 per an immediate reaction that Friday, a low around the 6,225.00 vicinity was seen. However, since that violent fall the S&P 500 has incrementally traded higher. The drop in the S&P 500 last Thursday was met with buying action developing on Friday and lasting into yesterday.

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Today’s inflation numbers from the U.S will impact the S&P 500 too. Institutional traders now believe the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. If the Consumer Price Index meets its expected outcomes today, this may soothe investors once again. But day traders need to be braced for volatility before and after the CPI reports are released today. PPI numbers will be published on Thursday from the U.S too, which could be another influence.

Record Heights in Sight and Value Velocity

Day traders need to be on alert with the S&P 500. Choppy trading has been evident, but so has the ability of the index to continue marching upwards.

  • Yes, yesterday’s highs were pushed back, but perhaps this was caused by simple profit taking.
  • Speculators who are tempted to be sellers near perceived resistance can certainly trade in this manner, but upside momentum has been rather pronounced via the trend upwards the past few months.
  • Risk taking tactics should be used via conservative leverage.
  • The notion that the S&P will continue to edge higher over the coming weeks remains the flavor of the day via sentiment.

S&P 500 Short-Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 6,392.00

Current Support: 6,383.00

High Target: 6,425.00

Low Target: 6,360.00

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Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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